Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
Spartak Varna
First League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Spartak Varna
The model makes it 41% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 31% draw, 28% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.25, Spartak Varna 0.93.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Lokomotiv Plovdiv's rating is built from 50 Bulgarian First League matches and Spartak Varna's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.
Key facts
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th on 12 points from 14 games; Spartak Varna are 7th on 16 points from 14 games — First League.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Botev Vratsa.
- Spartak Varna have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Arda Kardzhali.
- Last 6 meetings: Spartak Varna 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 August 2026, ended Spartak Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
Has the model earned this number?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
First League
- W2-1away to Botev Vratsa7 November 2026
- L0-3Ludogorets31 October 2026
- D0-0Slavia Sofia26 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia10 October 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia20 September 2026
Spartak Varna
First League
- W3-2Arda Kardzhali8 November 2026
- L1-6away to CSKA 194830 October 2026
- L0-2away to Dunav Ruse24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botev Vratsa10 October 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Varna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 12 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 33% today
Spartak Varna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
- 3 August 2026Spartak Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 21 February 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 30 August 2025Spartak Varna 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 7 April 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 23 October 2024Spartak Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 28 April 2023Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Spartak Varna
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
No player in First League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Spartak Varna
GoalsAssists
- Georg Stojanovski11
- J. Tshitoku10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Spartak Varna (7th, with Lokomotiv Plovdiv 11th), while our numbers lean to Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Lokomotiv Plovdiv rate 0.41 in attack and 1.57 in defence, Spartak Varna 0.51 and 2.21 (lower is better in defence), so Lokomotiv Plovdiv have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv against 0.93 for Spartak Varna. Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.21 for Spartak Varna.
How the model reaches 41% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Lokomotiv Plovdiv's ratings change nothing and Spartak Varna's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Both sides at this match's level38%−2
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv's ratings38%±0
- Spartak Varna's ratings41%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home · Spartak Varna away
League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Lokomotiv PlovdivSpartak Varna
Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th after 14 First League matches (between 6th and 14th so far); Spartak Varna are 7th after 14 (between 2nd and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 14, Spartak Varna 14.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Spartak Varna have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- vs Levski Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 16%
- at Dunav Ruse13 Feb · First Leaguewin 27%
- at Arda Kardzhali20 Feb · First Leaguewin 25%
- vs CSKA 194827 Feb · First Leaguewin 21%
Spartak Varna
- vs Botev Plovdiv5 Dec · First Leaguewin 28%
- at Septemvri Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 34%
- vs Levski Sofia20 Feb · First Leaguewin 14%
- at Ludogorets27 Feb · First Leaguewin 10%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.