HNK Hajduk Split
vs
Rudes
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 Rudes
The model makes it 67% HNK Hajduk Split, 20% draw, 13% Rudes — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 2.37, Rudes 0.78.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: HNK Hajduk Split are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. HNK Hajduk Split's rating is built from 49 Croatian HNL matches and Rudes's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 424 matches.
Key facts
- HNK Hajduk Split are top on 29 points from 13 games; Rudes are 8th on 16 points from 13 games — HNL.
- HNK Hajduk Split are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to NK Osijek.
- Rudes are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- Last 6 meetings: HNK Hajduk Split 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Rudes 0–4 HNK Hajduk Split.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: HNK Hajduk Split vs Rudes
Has the model earned this number?
HNK Hajduk Split at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Rudes
HNK Hajduk Split
HNL
- W1-0away to NK Osijek8 November 2026
- W5-0HNK Gorica31 October 2026
- D2-2away to Istra 196126 October 2026
- W1-0NK Varazdin18 October 2026
- W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026
Rudes
HNL
- W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 November 2026
- W1-0Dinamo Zagreb31 October 2026
- W1-0away to NK Osijek25 October 2026
- L1-2HNK Rijeka16 October 2026
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica9 October 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rudes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rudes won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 8 | Rudes | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs Rudes
- 6 September 2026Rudes 0–4 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 27 April 2024HNK Hajduk Split 5–1 RudesHNL
- 17 February 2024Rudes 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 4 November 2023HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 RudesHNL
- 20 August 2023Rudes 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 14 May 2019Rudes 1–4 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Rudes
HNK Hajduk Split
GoalsAssists
- M. Šego51
- A. Sanyang32
- Carlos Martín31
Rudes
No player in HNL's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HNK Hajduk Split a 38% chance of the title and Rudes 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.37 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 0.78 for Rudes. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.83 for Rudes.
How the model reaches 67% for HNK Hajduk Split to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for HNK Hajduk Split to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, HNK Hajduk Split's ratings add 12 points and Rudes's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- HNK Hajduk Split's ratings55%+12
- Rudes's ratings67%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
HNK Hajduk Split at home · Rudes away
League matches only, HNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
HNK Hajduk SplitRudes
HNK Hajduk Split are 1st after 13 HNL matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Rudes are 8th after 13 (between 7th and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: HNK Hajduk Split 13, Rudes 13.
Rudes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); HNK Hajduk Split have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
HNK Hajduk Split
- at NK Slaven Belupo5 Dec · HNLwin 52%
- vs FC Nordsjaelland10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 45%
- vs HNK Rijeka13 Dec · HNLwin 56%
Rudes
- vs Istra 19615 Dec · HNLwin 36%
- at NK Slaven Belupo12 Dec · HNLwin 29%
- vs HNK Gorica19 Dec · HNLwin 49%
- at HNK Rijeka23 Jan · HNLwin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.