31 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ilves vs HJK Helsinki Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Tammelan Stadion, Tampere
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Ilves 1-2 HJK Helsinki.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Ilves, 30% draw, 27% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ilves at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ilves0%Draw4%HJK Helsinki96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁O. Petterssonout: G. Bamba
14'
23'
Martin Kirilov
Faris Krkalić
55'
57'
⚽A. Ring (pen)
⚽K. Walliusassist: T. Hytonen
59'
🔁L. Ala-Myllymakiout: O. Multala
69'
🔁T. Miettunenout: E. Tamminen
69'
73'
🔁M. Kirilovout: M. Borchers
73'
🔁A. Cicaleout: L. Lappalainen
73'
⚽M. Borchersassist: L. Lappalainen
77'
🔁A. Ringout: M. Gueye
🔁J. Kiloout: Y. Raap
82'
🔁T. Hytonenout: H. Coulibaly
82'
87'
🔁P. Mentuout: N. Alho
87'
🔁out: J. Kallinen

Line-ups

Ilves 3-4-2-1
  • 12F. KrkalicG
  • 24V. KumpuD
  • 5S. VaisanenD
  • 16T. MiettunenD
  • 4O. PetterssonD
  • 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
  • 28J. KiloM
  • 13K. WalliusM
  • 8M. StjopinM
  • 14A. PopovitchM
  • 9T. HytonenF
Substitutes
  • 31R. LeislahtiG
  • 19G. BambaD
  • 3M. RaleD
  • 6Y. RaapD
  • 22O. MultalaM
  • 33Y. SackoM
  • 45E. TamminenF
  • 17S. BaranovM
  • 11H. CoulibalyF
Coach: Camilo Speranza
HJK Helsinki 4-4-2
  • 44M. MarkovicG
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 22L. MollerM
  • 4A. RingM
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 11M. KirilovM
  • 20T. PukkiF
  • 7A. CicaleM
Substitutes
  • 1J. OstG
  • 30J. SamoojaG
  • 17N. AlhoD
  • 31M. BogicevicD
  • 9M. BorchersF
  • 15J. KallinenM
  • 32M. GueyeM
  • 26L. LappalainenM
  • 21P. NdirF
Coach: Joonas Rantanen

Form going into Ilves vs HJK Helsinki

Ilves

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1VPS22 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Gnistan17 August 2026
  • D1-1HNK Rijeka13 August 2026
  • W2-0Mariehamn9 August 2026
  • L0-1away to HNK Rijeka6 August 2026

HJK Helsinki

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Gnistan23 August 2026
  • W3-0FF Jaro16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Motherwell13 August 2026
  • W1-0away to AC Oulu9 August 2026
  • D1-1Motherwell6 August 2026

What these results say

  • Ilves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Ilves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Ilves had two goals or fewer.
  • HJK Helsinki scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ilves vs HJK Helsinki

  • 1 July 2026HJK Helsinki 2–1 IlvesSuomen Cup
  • 16 May 2026HJK Helsinki 2–2 IlvesFinnish Premier League
  • 30 October 2025Ilves 3–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 29 September 2025HJK Helsinki 2–2 IlvesFinnish Premier League
  • 11 August 2025HJK Helsinki 5–1 IlvesFinnish Premier League
  • 5 April 2025Ilves 3–2 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Ilves and HJK Helsinki

Ilves

GoalsAssists

  • T. Hytönen91
  • J. Kanga43
  • E. Tamminen42

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers173
  • T. Pukki46
  • S. Haarala42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HJK Helsinki won 2–1 at Ilves. The model had leaned towards a win for Ilves at 43% and given a win for HJK Helsinki 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Ring (penalty) 57' for HJK Helsinki, K. Wallius 59' for Ilves, M. Borchers 73' for HJK Helsinki.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.