31 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Sirius vs Malmo FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Studenternas IP, Uppsala
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Sirius, 25% draw, 26% Malmo FF — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sirius at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sirius0%Draw7%Malmo FF93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Tobias Anker
21'
34'
Diego García
Mohamed Soumah
43'
44'
⚽D. Garciaassist: T. Lundbergh
53'
Adrian Skogmar
🔁O. Adinduout: Z. Vancsa
55'
🔁V. Svenssonout: N. Jonsson
55'
🔁J. Perssonout: J. Uneken
55'
63'
🔁S. Gregersenout: M. Palsson
63'
🔁D. Garciaout: E. Botheim
63'
🔁J. Milosavljevicout: I. Assibu
74'
🔁T. Lundberghout: B. Kurtulus
86'
🔁S. Haksabanovicout: N. John

Match stats — Sirius vs Malmo FF

53%Possession47%
17Shots15
2On target6
7Corners4
1.72xG1.77

Goals against chances

Sirius0 from 1.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Malmo FF1 from 1.77 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sirius 4-2-3-1
  • 34D. CelicG
  • 5H. CastegrenD
  • 2M. SoumahD
  • 4T. AnkerD
  • 22O. KrusnellD
  • 10M. HeierM
  • 6M. LindbergM
  • 25O. AdinduM
  • 24V. SvenssonM
  • 7J. PerssonM
  • 11I. BjerkeboF
Substitutes
  • 1I. DiawaraG
  • 15S. SandbergD
  • 20V. EkstromD
  • 18A. WikmanM
  • 21C. NildenM
  • 30Z. VancsaM
  • 17N. JonssonF
  • 36A. LjungbergF
  • 9J. UnekenF
Coach: Andreas Engelmark
Malmo FF 4-1-3-2
  • 1R. OlsenG
  • 17J. StrygerD
  • 5A. DjuricD
  • 2S. GregersenD
  • 25BusanelloD
  • 37A. SkogmarM
  • 45A. HoogM
  • 28J. MilosavljevicM
  • 47T. LundberghM
  • 9D. GarciaF
  • 29S. HaksabanovicF
Substitutes
  • 27J. DahlinG
  • 44M. PalssonD
  • 23N. JohnD
  • 4B. KurtulusD
  • 6Y. KarabelyovM
  • 42V. JeppssonM
  • 20E. BotheimF
  • 32D. T. GudjohnsenF
  • 39I. AssibuF
Coach: Gaute Helstrup

Form going into Sirius vs Malmo FF

Sirius

  • L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026
  • L3-4away to Mjallby AIF15 August 2026

Malmo FF

  • L0-3Djurgardens IF24 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Gais16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Sirius2115335027+2348
5Malmo FF2110383731+633

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sirius vs Malmo FF

  • 31 August 2026Sirius 0–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 23 April 2026Malmo FF 2–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 5 October 2025Sirius 5–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 18 April 2025Malmo FF 1–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 27 July 2024Malmo FF 0–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 19 July 2024Sirius 3–4 Malmo FFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Sirius and Malmo FF

Sirius

  • R. Ure15 goals2 assists
  • I. Bjerkebo13 goals5 assists

Malmo FF

  • E. Botheim10 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.