31 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Sirius vs Malmo FF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Studenternas IP, Uppsala
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Sirius 0-1 Malmo FF.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Sirius, 25% draw, 26% Malmo FF — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sirius at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sirius0%Draw7%Malmo FF93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Tobias Anker
21'
34'
Diego García
Mohamed Soumah
43'
44'
⚽D. Garciaassist: T. Lundbergh
53'
Adrian Skogmar
🔁O. Adinduout: Z. Vancsa
55'
🔁V. Svenssonout: N. Jonsson
55'
🔁J. Perssonout: J. Uneken
55'
63'
🔁S. Gregersenout: M. Palsson
63'
🔁D. Garciaout: E. Botheim
63'
🔁J. Milosavljevicout: I. Assibu
74'
🔁T. Lundberghout: B. Kurtulus
86'
🔁S. Haksabanovicout: N. John

Match stats — Sirius vs Malmo FF

53%Possession47%
17Shots15
2On target6
7Corners4
1.72xG1.77

Goals against chances

Sirius0 from 1.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Malmo FF1 from 1.77 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sirius 4-2-3-1
  • 34D. CelicG
  • 5H. CastegrenD
  • 2M. SoumahD
  • 4T. AnkerD
  • 22O. KrusnellD
  • 10M. HeierM
  • 6M. LindbergM
  • 25O. AdinduM
  • 24V. SvenssonM
  • 7J. PerssonM
  • 11I. BjerkeboF
Substitutes
  • 1I. DiawaraG
  • 15S. SandbergD
  • 20V. EkstromD
  • 18A. WikmanM
  • 21C. NildenM
  • 30Z. VancsaM
  • 17N. JonssonF
  • 36A. LjungbergF
  • 9J. UnekenF
Coach: Andreas Engelmark
Malmo FF 4-1-3-2
  • 1R. OlsenG
  • 17J. StrygerD
  • 5A. DjuricD
  • 2S. GregersenD
  • 25BusanelloD
  • 37A. SkogmarM
  • 45A. HoogM
  • 28J. MilosavljevicM
  • 47T. LundberghM
  • 9D. GarciaF
  • 29S. HaksabanovicF
Substitutes
  • 27J. DahlinG
  • 44M. PalssonD
  • 23N. JohnD
  • 4B. KurtulusD
  • 6Y. KarabelyovM
  • 42V. JeppssonM
  • 20E. BotheimF
  • 32D. T. GudjohnsenF
  • 39I. AssibuF
Coach: Gaute Helstrup

Form going into Sirius vs Malmo FF

Sirius

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026
  • L3-4away to Mjallby AIF15 August 2026
  • D2-2IF Brommapojkarna10 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Halmstad3 August 2026
  • W4-1IFK Goteborg26 July 2026

Malmo FF

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3Djurgardens IF24 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Gais16 August 2026
  • L1-2Degerfors IF9 August 2026
  • W2-1away to IF Brommapojkarna2 August 2026
  • L1-2IF Elfsborg26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Sirius scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sirius conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sirius had three goals or more.
  • Malmo FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Malmo FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Malmo FF had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Sirius2818465835+2358
7Malmo FF28125114236+641

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sirius vs Malmo FF

  • 23 April 2026Malmo FF 2–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 5 October 2025Sirius 5–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 18 April 2025Malmo FF 1–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 27 July 2024Malmo FF 0–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 19 July 2024Sirius 3–4 Malmo FFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Sirius and Malmo FF

Sirius

GoalsAssists

  • I. Bjerkebo157
  • R. Ure152

Malmo FF

GoalsAssists

  • E. Botheim103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Malmo FF won 1–0 at Sirius. The model had leaned towards a win for Sirius at 49% and given a win for Malmo FF 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: D. Garcia 44' for Malmo FF. On expected goals it finished 1.72–1.77.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.