Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Incheon United 1-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Incheon United, 27% draw, 33% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Incheon United at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen
Line-ups
- 1Kim Dong-HeonG
- 39Kim Myung-soonD
- 4Kim Gun-HeeD
- 2IbizaD
- 32Lee Ju-YongD
- 72Lee Chung-YongM
- 15Seo Jae-MinM
- 5Lee Myoung-JooM
- 70Leandro RibeiroM
- 9S. MugosaF
- 99M. FerrierF
- 21Lee Tae-HuiG
- 3Lee Sang-GiD
- 13Choi Seung-guD
- 28Kim Yeon-SooD
- 11GersoF
- 17Kim Seong-MinM
- 23Jeong Chi-InM
- 26Lee Min-HyukM
- 30Kim Young-whanM
- 1Lee Chang-GeunG
- 6Kang Yun-SungD
- 45Ha Chang-RaeD
- 98A. KrivotsyukD
- 16Lee Myung-JaeD
- 44Lee Soon-MinM
- 8Victor BobsinM
- 27Jeong Jae-HeeM
- 7M. IshidaM
- 17G. LudwigsonM
- 10Joo Min-KyuF
- 31Kim Min-SooG
- 4Cho Sung-GwonD
- 13Kim Jin-YaD
- 14Kim Jun-BeomM
- 20H. LeeM
- 41Park Byung-chanM
- 9Diogo OliveiraF
- 11Um Won-SangM
- 19Seo Jin-SuF
Form going into Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen
Incheon United
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Bucheon FC 19958 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Seoul5 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors30 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 August 2026
Daejeon Citizen
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Pohang Steelers12 September 2026
- W3-2FC Anyang9 September 2026
- W5-0away to Bucheon FC 19955 September 2026
- L1-3away to Jeju United FC30 August 2026
- W2-1Ulsan Hyundai FC26 August 2026
What these results say
- Incheon United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Daejeon Citizen had three goals or more.
- Daejeon Citizen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Incheon United | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 37 | +7 | 49 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 55 | 41 | +14 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen
- 5 May 2026Daejeon Citizen 0–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 18 March 2026Incheon United 1–3 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 10 November 2024Incheon United 1–2 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 17 August 2024Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 18 May 2024Daejeon Citizen 0–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
Leading scorers: Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen
Incheon United
GoalsAssists
- S. Mugoša111
- M. Ferrier51
Daejeon Citizen
GoalsAssists
- Diogo de Oliveira62
- Jeong Jae-Hee41
- M. Ishida41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Incheon United at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Ferrier 35' for Incheon United, Kang Yun-Sung 90' for Daejeon Citizen.
How the call on Incheon United v Daejeon Citizen has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Incheon United's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Incheon United win40%▲ +6
- Draw27%=
- Daejeon Citizen win33%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.