Inter
vs
Genoa
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Inter 2–0 Genoa
The model makes it 65% Inter, 21% draw, 14% Genoa — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Inter 2.27, Genoa 0.78.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Inter are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Inter's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Genoa's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Inter are 2nd on 28 points from 11 games; Genoa are 13th on 13 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Inter have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Como.
- Genoa have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to AC Milan.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Inter 2–0 Genoa.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Inter vs Genoa
Has the model earned this number?
Inter at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Inter vs Genoa
Inter
Serie A
- W2-0Como8 November 2026
- L1-3away to AC Milan31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia28 October 2026
- W2-1Fiorentina25 October 2026
- W3-1away to Bologna17 October 2026
Genoa
Serie A
- L1-2AC Milan8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Lecce1 November 2026
- W2-0Juventus28 October 2026
- W1-0Venezia25 October 2026
- L0-2away to AS Roma17 October 2026
What these results say
- Inter scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Genoa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Inter
Chance to win the league · 45% today
Genoa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Inter vs Genoa
- 28 February 2026Inter 2–0 GenoaSerie A
- 14 December 2025Genoa 1–2 InterSerie A
- 22 February 2025Inter 1–0 GenoaSerie A
- 17 August 2024Genoa 2–2 InterSerie A
- 4 March 2024Inter 2–1 GenoaSerie A
- 29 December 2023Genoa 1–1 InterSerie A
Leading scorers: Inter and Genoa
Inter
GoalsAssists
- M. Thuram62
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Inter a 44.5% chance of the title and Genoa 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Inter against 0.78 for Genoa. Inter's attack/defence rating is 1.79/0.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/0.9 for Genoa.
How the model reaches 65% for Inter to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Inter to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Inter's ratings add 16 points and Genoa's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Inter's ratings54%+16
- Genoa's ratings65%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Inter at home · Genoa away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
InterGenoa
Inter are 2nd after 11 Serie A matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Genoa are 13th after 11 (between 11th and 19th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Inter 11, Genoa 11.
Inter score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Genoa have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Inter
- at Frosinone5 Dec · Serie Awin 54%
- at Borussia Dortmund9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
- vs Torino13 Dec · Serie Awin 69%
Genoa
- vs Torino6 Dec · Serie Awin 38%
- at Atalanta14 Dec · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Udinese20 Dec · Serie Awin 42%
- at Cagliari2 Jan · Serie Awin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.