Torino
vs
Lazio
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Torino 0–1 Lazio
The model makes it 25% Torino, 27% draw, 48% Lazio — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Torino 1.05, Lazio 1.66.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Lazio: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Torino's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Lazio's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Torino are 11th on 14 points from 11 games; Lazio are top on 29 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Torino are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Lecce.
- Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Napoli.
- Last 6 meetings: Lazio 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Torino 2–0 Lazio.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Torino vs Lazio
Has the model earned this number?
Lazio at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Torino vs Lazio
Torino
Serie A
- D1-1Lecce7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Frosinone1 November 2026
- L1-3Como27 October 2026
- W3-2Monza23 October 2026
- W3-0away to Parma19 October 2026
Lazio
Serie A
- D1-1away to Napoli8 November 2026
- W2-1Cagliari1 November 2026
- W6-2away to Sassuolo27 October 2026
- W2-1Parma24 October 2026
- W3-0away to Juventus18 October 2026
What these results say
- Torino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Torino
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Lazio
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Torino vs Lazio
- 1 March 2026Torino 2–0 LazioSerie A
- 4 October 2025Lazio 3–3 TorinoSerie A
- 31 March 2025Lazio 1–1 TorinoSerie A
- 29 September 2024Torino 2–3 LazioSerie A
- 22 February 2024Torino 0–2 LazioSerie A
- 27 September 2023Lazio 2–0 TorinoSerie A
Leading scorers: Torino and Lazio
Torino
GoalsAssists
- C. Adams40
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- T. Noslin44
- G. Isaksen41
- D. Frattesi40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Torino a 0% chance of the title and Lazio 7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lazio the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Torino against 1.66 for Lazio. Torino's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.78 for Lazio.
How the model reaches 48% for Lazio to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lazio to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Torino's ratings add 7 points and Lazio's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Torino's ratings41%+7
- Lazio's ratings48%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Torino at home · Lazio away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
TorinoLazio
Torino are 11th after 11 Serie A matches (between 7th and 16th so far); Lazio are 1st after 11 (between 1st and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Torino 11, Lazio 11.
Torino score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Lazio have let in 2 there.
Lazio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Torino have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Torino
- at Genoa6 Dec · Serie Awin 32%
- at Inter13 Dec · Serie Awin 13%
- vs Cagliari20 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
- vs Venezia2 Jan · Serie Awin 46%
Lazio
- vs Atalanta6 Dec · Serie Awin 45%
- vs AS Roma13 Dec · Serie Awin 27%
- at Frosinone18 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
- at Fiorentina2 Jan · Serie Awin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.