20 September 2026, 16:30 UTC

Kalamata vs Panathinaikos Super League 1 prediction & result

Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium, Kalamata
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Kalamata 0-1 Panathinaikos.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Kalamata, 26% draw, 44% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Panathinaikos at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kalamata0%Draw5%Panathinaikos95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
⚽Andrews Tetteh
Julio Alonso
42'
44'
Kings Kangwa
🔁M. Bakayokoout: J. Cataldi
57'
65'
🔁Azzedine Ounahiout: Cyriel Dessers
65'
🔁Kings Kangwaout: Imrân Louza
Antônio Josenildo Rodrigues de Oliveira
73'
🔁Erik Hamzaout: Julián Bonetto
78'
79'
🔁Andrews Tettehout: Triantafyllos Tsapras
🔁Djibril Diarraout: Ilias Chatzitheodoridis
84'
🔁Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiroout: David Kurminowski
84'
🔁Julio Alonsoout: Argyrios Liatsikouras
84'
90'
🔁Levi Garcíaout: Elmin Rastoder
J. Cataldi
90+3'

Match stats — Kalamata vs Panathinaikos

35%Possession65%
13Shots14
4On target5
2Corners6

Line-ups

Kalamata 5-3-2
  • 40N. VasiljevićG
  • 22P. KaloutsikidisD
  • 19M. J. BakayokoD
  • 4S. StroungisD
  • 97RodriguesD
  • 17Julio AlonsoD
  • 24E. HamzaM
  • 23G. PiñeiroM
  • 6D. DiarraM
  • 9J. BolívarF
  • 20A. Mendes MoreiraF
Substitutes
  • 7J. CataldiM
  • 32J. BonettoF
  • 12I. ChatzitheodoridisD
  • 16E. FrimpongM
  • 1I. GeliosG
  • 26P. GinisG
  • 44A. GuessandD
  • 29U. IgnjatovićD
  • 91D. KurminowskiF
Coach: Panagiotis Christofileas
Panathinaikos 4-1-4-1
  • 1Iñaki PeñaG
  • 2D. CalabriaD
  • 6S. de VrijD
  • 55R. van DrongelenD
  • 77G. KiriakopoulosD
  • 22E. CamaraM
  • 99L. GarcíaM
  • 42K. KangwaM
  • 21A. OunahiM
  • 10Santino AndinoM
  • 7A. TettehF
Substitutes
  • 5A. Salah-EddineD
  • 74E. RastoderF
  • 28F. PellistriM
  • 14E. Palmer-BrownD
  • 26I. LouzaM
  • 70K. KotsarisG
  • 18S. KontourisM
  • 8Adriano JagušićM
  • 9C. DessersF
Coach: Jacob Neestrup

Form going into Kalamata vs Panathinaikos

Kalamata

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Volos NFC13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Atromitos6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Panetolikos29 August 2026
  • L2-3Aris Thessalonikis22 August 2026

Panathinaikos

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
  • W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
  • W3-1PAOK6 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Levadiakos31 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Hradec Králové27 August 2026

What these results say

  • Kalamata conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Kalamata failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Kalamata scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Panathinaikos won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Panathinaikos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Panathinaikos had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Kalamata103341519-412
1Panathinaikos10901225+1727

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Kalamata and Panathinaikos

Kalamata

GoalsAssists

  • D. Kurminowski50
  • J. Bolívar30

Panathinaikos

GoalsAssists

  • A. Tetteh51
  • C. Dessers40
  • V. Taborda31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Panathinaikos won 1–0 at Kalamata. The model had made a win for Panathinaikos its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Andrews Tetteh 33' for Panathinaikos.

How the call on Kalamata v Panathinaikos has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 30% / 26% / 44%: the biggest move is Panathinaikos's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Kalamata win30%▼ −5
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Panathinaikos win44%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.