Karpaty
vs
Polessya
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Karpaty 2–1 Polessya
The model makes it 39% Karpaty, 27% draw, 34% Polessya — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Karpaty 1.48, Polessya 1.34.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Karpaty's rating is built from 41 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Polessya's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Karpaty are 5th on 19 points from 11 games; Polessya are 2nd on 28 points from 11 games — Premier League.
- Karpaty are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Kudrivka.
- Polessya are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Veres Rivne.
- Last 6 meetings: Polessya 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 December 2025, ended Polessya 3–2 Karpaty.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Karpaty vs Polessya
Has the model earned this number?
Karpaty at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Karpaty vs Polessya
Karpaty
Premier League
- W5-0Kudrivka2 November 2026
- D0-0away to Chornomorets25 October 2026
- D2-2Epitsentr Dunayivtsi18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv11 October 2026
- D1-1Veres Rivne20 September 2026
Polessya
Premier League
- W2-0Veres Rivne6 November 2026
- W3-0Obolon'-Brovar23 October 2026
- W3-1Dynamo Kyiv18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Bukovyna11 October 2026
- W1-0Kryvbas KR18 September 2026
What these results say
- Karpaty failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Polessya went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polessya scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polessya won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Karpaty | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 19 |
| 2 | Polessya | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 8 | +17 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Karpaty vs Polessya
- 13 December 2025Polessya 3–2 KarpatyPremier League
- 3 August 2025Karpaty 0–2 PolessyaPremier League
- 7 April 2025Polessya 1–1 KarpatyPremier League
- 12 February 2025Karpaty 0–3 PolessyaFriendlies Clubs
- 28 September 2024Karpaty 1–3 PolessyaPremier League
- 27 November 2022Karpaty 1–2 PolessyaPersha Liga
Leading scorers: Karpaty and Polessya
Karpaty
GoalsAssists
- Y. Kostenko50
- Xeber Alkain22
Polessya
GoalsAssists
- I. Krasnopir81
- V. Veleten41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Polessya (second, with Karpaty fifth), while our numbers lean to Karpaty. Karpaty rate 0.80 in attack and 1.22 in defence, Polessya 0.91 and 1.14 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Karpaty a 0.5% chance of the title and Polessya 22.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Karpaty the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Karpaty against 1.34 for Polessya. Karpaty's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.14 for Polessya.
How the model reaches 39% for Karpaty to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Karpaty to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Karpaty's ratings take away 2 points and Polessya's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Karpaty's ratings42%−2
- Polessya's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Karpaty at home · Polessya away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Karpaty 11, Polessya 11.
Polessya score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Karpaty have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Karpaty
- at Obolon'-Brovar5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs Kryvbas KR12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 65%
- at LNZ Cherkasy27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Bukovyna6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 42%
Polessya
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 70%
- at Kolos Kovalivka9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- vs Chornomorets12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 67%
- at FC Kharkiv27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.