Regular Season - 17 · 29 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Koper vs Celje 1. SNL prediction

Bonifika, Koper

Our model says: Koper 2–1 Celje

The model makes it 41% Koper, 27% draw, 32% Celje — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Koper 1.56, Celje 1.29.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Koper's rating is built from 49 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Celje's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Koper are top on 29 points from 15 games; Celje are 3rd on 23 points from 14 games — 1. SNL.
  • Koper are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Mura.
  • Celje are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Radomlje.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Celje 0–1 Koper.

More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions

All Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Koper vs Celje

58%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Koper win Draw Celje win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 1–28%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Koper first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Koper at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Koper vs Celje

Koper

1. SNL

  • D1-1Mura7 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Bravo2 November 2026
  • W4-0Maribor27 October 2026
  • W5-0Brinje-Grosuplje18 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Radomlje10 October 2026

Celje

1. SNL

  • W2-1away to Radomlje8 November 2026
  • W4-0Nafta1 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Olimpija Ljubljana28 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Maribor18 October 2026
  • W1-0Aluminij10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Koper went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Koper scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Koper had three goals or more.
  • Celje went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Celje scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Koper158522613+1329
3Celje146531913+623

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Koper vs Celje

  • 6 September 2026Celje 0–1 Koper1. SNL
  • 16 May 2026Celje 1–2 Koper1. SNL
  • 15 March 2026Koper 0–1 Celje1. SNL
  • 30 November 2025Celje 1–1 Koper1. SNL
  • 14 September 2025Koper 3–3 Celje1. SNL
  • 14 May 2025Koper 0–4 CeljeCup

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Koper a 47.4% chance of the title and Celje 35.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Koper Celje
0.82 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.82
1.31 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.17
1.56 Model expected goals (this match) 1.29

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Koper the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Koper against 1.29 for Celje. Koper's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.17 for Celje.

Koper carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.67 for Celje. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for Koper to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Koper to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Koper's ratings take away 1 point and Celje's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Koper's ratings43%−1
  4. Celje's ratings41%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

KoperCelje
15Matches14
8W 5D 2LRecord6W 5D 3L
26 1.7 per gameGoals scored19 1.4 per game
13 0.9 per gameGoals conceded13 0.9 per game
8 of 15Clean sheets6 of 14
2 of 15Failed to score3 of 14
4 of 5Penalties scored2 of 2
39 2.6 per gameYellow cards23 1.6 per game
2Red cards0

Koper at home · Celje away

7Played8
3W 3D 1LRecord3W 3D 2L
15–6Goals for – against10–9
4 of 7Clean sheets3 of 8

League matches only, 1. SNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. SNL matches this season: Koper 15, Celje 14.

Koper scored 351548
Celje conceded 222313

Koper score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Celje have let in 3 there.

Celje scored 342325
Koper conceded 411331

Celje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Koper have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Koper

  • at Olimpija Ljubljana5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 32%
  • at Nafta30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 44%
  • vs Radomlje6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 74%
  • at Brinje-Grosuplje10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 52%

Celje

  • vs Radomlje2 Dec · 1. SNLwin 76%
  • vs Bravo5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 58%
  • vs Olympiakos Piraeus10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.