Regular Season - 16 · 29 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

ŁKS Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk I Liga prediction

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Our model says: ŁKS Łódź 1–0 Lechia Gdansk

The model makes it 46% ŁKS Łódź, 27% draw, 27% Lechia Gdansk — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: ŁKS Łódź 1.63, Lechia Gdansk 1.13.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. ŁKS Łódź's rating is built from 49 Polish I Liga matches and Lechia Gdansk's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • ŁKS Łódź are 2nd on 25 points from 14 games; Lechia Gdansk are 4th on 22 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • ŁKS Łódź are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Stal Rzeszów.
  • Lechia Gdansk have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Polonia Bytom.
  • Last 2 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 November 2019, ended Lechia Gdansk 3–1 ŁKS Łódź.

More Polish I Liga predictions

All Polish I Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: ŁKS Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk

55%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

ŁKS Łódź win Draw Lechia Gdansk win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 0–17%

Scores read ŁKS Łódź first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

ŁKS Łódź at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into ŁKS Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk

ŁKS Łódź

I Liga

  • W1-0Stal Rzeszów8 November 2026
  • D1-1Polonia Warszawa2 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Warta Poznań26 October 2026
  • W1-0Podbeskidzie18 October 2026
  • L0-2Ruch Chorzów11 October 2026

Lechia Gdansk

I Liga

  • L0-1away to Polonia Bytom8 November 2026
  • W3-2Unia Skierniewice31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice24 October 2026
  • W2-1Arka Gdynia18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for ŁKS Łódź had two goals or fewer.
  • ŁKS Łódź scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lechia Gdansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lechia Gdansk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Lechia Gdansk had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2ŁKS Łódź147431712+525
4Lechia Gdansk147162522+322

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: ŁKS Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk

  • 23 November 2019Lechia Gdansk 3–1 ŁKS ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 19 July 2019ŁKS Łódź 0–0 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ŁKS Łódź a 16.2% chance of the title and Lechia Gdansk 6.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

ŁKS Łódź Lechia Gdansk
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.66
1.42 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.86
1.63 Model expected goals (this match) 1.13

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ŁKS Łódź the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź against 1.13 for Lechia Gdansk. ŁKS Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.86 for Lechia Gdansk.

ŁKS Łódź carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.34 for Lechia Gdansk. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 46% for ŁKS Łódź to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ŁKS Łódź to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, ŁKS Łódź's ratings change nothing and Lechia Gdansk's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 46%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. ŁKS Łódź's ratings44%±0
  4. Lechia Gdansk's ratings46%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ŁKS ŁódźLechia Gdansk
14Matches14
7W 4D 3LRecord7W 1D 6L
17 1.2 per gameGoals scored25 1.8 per game
12 0.9 per gameGoals conceded22 1.6 per game
5 of 14Clean sheets1 of 14
3 of 14Failed to score4 of 14
3 of 5Penalties scored1 of 2
27 1.9 per gameYellow cards26 1.9 per game
0Red cards1

ŁKS Łódź at home · Lechia Gdansk away

8Played7
5W 1D 2LRecord2W 1D 4L
12–7Goals for – against10–11
3 of 8Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: ŁKS Łódź 14, Lechia Gdansk 14.

ŁKS Łódź scored 205335
Lechia Gdansk conceded 226318
Lechia Gdansk scored 216466
ŁKS Łódź conceded 023123

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

ŁKS Łódź

  • at Unia Skierniewice5 Dec · I Ligawin 38%
  • vs Pogoń Siedlce12 Dec · I Ligawin 51%
  • at Polonia Bytom6 Feb · I Ligawin 31%
  • at Chrobry Głogów13 Feb · I Ligawin 33%

Lechia Gdansk

  • vs Chrobry Głogów5 Dec · I Ligawin 49%
  • at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki12 Dec · I Ligawin 32%
  • at Warta Poznań6 Feb · I Ligawin 33%
  • vs Podbeskidzie13 Feb · I Ligawin 52%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.