Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions & fixtures

Saturday 21 November — 2 matches

14:00 UTC Olimpija Ljubljana vs Radomlje — model 66% / 20% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.52 · 5.00 · 7.14. One-sided: Olimpija Ljubljana
16:30 UTC Mura vs Bravo — model 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.45 · 2.56. Edge: Bravo

Sunday 22 November — 2 matches

14:00 UTC Maribor vs Nafta — model 53% / 26% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 3.85 · 4.76. Edge: Maribor
16:30 UTC Celje vs Brinje-Grosuplje — model 70% / 19% / 11%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.43 · 5.26 · 9.09. One-sided: Celje

Monday 23 November — 1 match

16:30 UTC Koper vs Aluminij — model 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.17 · 5.56. Edge: Koper

Friday 27 November — 1 match

17:00 UTC Radomlje vs Nafta — model 38% / 26% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.85 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 28 November — 2 matches

14:00 UTC Bravo vs Aluminij — model 46% / 28% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.17 · 3.57 · 3.85. Evenly matched
16:30 UTC Mura vs Maribor — model 28% / 28% / 44%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.57 · 2.27. One-sided: Maribor

Sunday 29 November — 2 matches

14:00 UTC Brinje-Grosuplje vs Olimpija Ljubljana — model 26% / 29% / 45%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.45 · 2.22. One-sided: Olimpija Ljubljana
16:30 UTC Koper vs Celje — model 41% / 27% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.70 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 2 of 5 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 25 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 40% of results.

Nafta 1–1 Olimpija Ljubljana — the model said 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Koper 1–1 Mura — the model said 71% / 18% / 11%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
Bravo 2–1 Maribor — the model said 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Brinje-Grosuplje 1–0 Aluminij — the model said 32% / 28% / 40%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Radomlje 1–2 Celje — the model said 19% / 22% / 59%, most likely 1-2: exact scoreline.

Slovenian PrvaLiga so far

Top of the table

1. Koper — 29 pts from 15 (8W 5D 2L, goals 26–13)
2. Maribor — 24 pts from 15 (6W 6D 3L, goals 22–16)
3. Celje — 23 pts from 14 (6W 5D 3L, goals 19–13)
4. Olimpija Ljubljana — 23 pts from 15 (6W 5D 4L, goals 17–13)
5. Bravo — 23 pts from 15 (6W 5D 4L, goals 17–16)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 106 matches left: Koper 47.4%, Celje 35.5%, Maribor 8.2%.