Leganes vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Leganes 0-2 Castellón.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Leganes, 30% draw, 41% Castellón — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Castellón at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leganes vs Castellón
Line-ups
- 13L. ZidaneG
- 6Lalo AguilarD
- 3Javi MonteroD
- 2MarvelD
- 11Naim GarcíaM
- 10Z. BuurmeesterM
- 20Miguel AtienzaM
- 8Y. KechtaM
- 22Álex SancrisM
- 19P. SokoF
- 21Álvaro MorataF
- 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedF
- 18Andrés CamposF
- 1Raúl FernándezG
- 33J. HerreroM
- 31Nico LozanoG
- 9Álex MillánF
- 5Ignasi MiquelD
- 36Sulaiman MulumbaD
- 4Rubén PulidoD
- 13R. MatthysG
- 22J. MellotD
- 5Alberto JiménezD
- 4A. SienraD
- 2Juanjo NietoM
- 21Álvaro MartínM
- 8BarriM
- 14Iñigo CórdobaM
- 10Israel SueroM
- 16A. JakobsenM
- 9Ousmane CamaraF
- 24D. Muale NzanzaF
- 15I. KostisD
- 23Varo GarcíaF
- 27A. GalaM
- 20Martín CondeD
- 11F. CeccheriniD
- 17F. CastilloM
- 19Hamza BellariF
- 12Lucas AlcázarD
Form going into Leganes vs Castellón
Leganes
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tenerife13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Las Palmas4 September 2026
- W1-0Eldense29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Oviedo22 August 2026
Castellón
All competitions we cover
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026
- W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leganes had two goals or fewer.
- Castellón went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Castellón won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Leganes | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 15 |
| 2 | Castellón | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Castellón
- 16 January 2026Castellón 2–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 29 September 2025Leganes 0–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 6 March 2021Leganes 0–0 CastellónSegunda División
- 4 October 2020Castellón 2–0 LeganesSegunda División
Leading scorers: Leganes and Castellón
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero62
- A. Jakobsen41
- Ousmane Camara41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Castellón won 2–0 at Leganes. The model had made a win for Castellón its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Israel Suero Fernández 24' for Castellón, Adam Jakobsen 47' for Castellón. Sent off: Jeremy Mellot (Castellón) 82'.
How the call on Leganes v Castellón has moved
First published on 14 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 30% / 41%: the biggest move is Leganes's chance of winning, down 14 points.
- Leganes win29%▼ −14
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Castellón win41%▲ +13
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.