Spain vs Croatia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Spain 4-1 Croatia.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Spain, 27% draw, 21% Croatia — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Spain at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Spain vs Croatia
Line-ups
- 23Unai SimónG
- 12Marc PubillD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 2D. HuijsenD
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 9FermínM
- 18Martín ZubimendiM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 19Lamine YamalF
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF
- 15Álex BaenaF
- 3Álex GrimaldoD
- 4Iván FresnedaD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 6Mikel MerinoM
- 11Víctor MuñozF
- 10Dani OlmoM
- 20PedriM
- 1David RayaG
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 2I. SmolčićD
- 6J. ŠutaloD
- 3M. PongračićD
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 22J. MišićM
- 8M. KovačićM
- 19Marco PasalicM
- 17P. SučićM
- 14I. PerišićM
- 20D. BeljoF
- 5L. VuškovićD
- 13N. VlašićM
- 21L. SučićM
- 12I. PandurG
- 10L. ModrićM
- 9A. KramarićF
- 23D. KotarskiG
- 18K. JakićM
- 7F. IvanovićF
Form going into Spain vs Croatia
Spain
UEFA Nations League
- W3-2away to England26 September 2026
Croatia
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Czech Republic26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Croatia | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spain vs Croatia
- 15 June 2024Spain 3–0 CroatiaEuro Championship
- 18 June 2023Croatia 0–0 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 28 June 2021Croatia 3–5 SpainEuro Championship
- 15 November 2018Croatia 3–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 11 September 2018Spain 6–0 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Spain and Croatia
Spain
GoalsAssists
- Lamine Yamal41
- Mikel Merino31
Croatia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spain beat Croatia 4–1. The model had made a win for Spain its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Lamine Yamal 2' for Spain, Dion Drena Beljo 28' for Croatia, Marc Pubill 31' for Spain, Lamine Yamal 63' for Spain, Nico Williams 89' for Spain.