Levante vs Sevilla La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Levante 3-3 Sevilla.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Levante, 28% draw, 30% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Levante at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Levante vs Sevilla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13M. RyanG
- 22J. ToljanD
- 4DelaD
- 3IfeanyiIfeanyi NdukweD
- 23Manu SánchezD
- 17Víctor GarcíaM
- 20Oriol ReyM
- 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
- 7BruguiM
- 9Iván RomeroF
- 11Yanis MusuayiF
- 14Jorge CabelloD
- 27Paco CortésF
- 1Pablo CuñatG
- 24T. FernándezF
- 36I. GaldinG
- 2A. MandiD
- 29Nacho PérezD
- 10P. RatkovF
- 6RequeM
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 4Kike SalasD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 6L. AgouméM
- 30Miguel ÁngelM
- 24Y. FofanaM
- 20Félix CorreiaM
- 9R. UreF
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 21C. EjukeF
- 10Peque FernándezF
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 15Fábio CardosoD
- 16IsaacF
Form going into Levante vs Sevilla
Levante
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Villarreal20 September 2026
- L2-4Barcelona13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malaga6 September 2026
- W5-2Real Betis29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Osasuna24 August 2026
Sevilla
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Barcelona19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Deportivo La Coruna16 September 2026
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Espanyol6 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico Madrid29 August 2026
What these results say
- Levante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sevilla scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Levante vs Sevilla
- 23 April 2026Levante 2–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 4 January 2026Sevilla 0–3 LevanteLa Liga
- 21 April 2022Levante 2–3 SevillaLa Liga
- 24 October 2021Sevilla 5–3 LevanteLa Liga
- 21 April 2021Levante 0–1 SevillaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Levante and Sevilla
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui51
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Levante and Sevilla drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Levante at 42% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Robbie Ure 13' for Sevilla, Felix Correia 54' for Sevilla, Iván Romero 57' for Levante, Adrián de la Fuente Barquilla 90+2' for Levante, Isaac Romero 90+5' for Sevilla, Ifeanyi Ndukwe 90+10' for Levante. Sent off: Isaac Romero (Sevilla) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 2.00–2.55.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Levante a 14.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.7% after a win, 15.4% after a draw, 17.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.4%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Levante v Sevilla has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Levante's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Levante win42%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Sevilla win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Levante's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Sevilla's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.