12 October 2026, 19:15 UTC

Famalicao vs Alverca Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao
Referee: Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Famalicao 1-4 Alverca.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Famalicao, 28% draw, 23% Alverca — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Famalicao at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Famalicao0%Draw1%Alverca99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Pedro Bondo Francisco
11'
Víctor Rofino Gordo
13'
14'
⚽Francisco Chiquinho
🔁Matheus Mattara Colomboout: Leonardo Realpe
20'
34'
Francisco Chissumba
Mathias De Amorim
37'
⚽Víctor Rofino Gordoassist: Marcos Peña
39'
45+2'
Diogo Spencer
56'
⚽Lucas Figueiredo dos Santosassist: Diogo Spencer
🔁Tamás Szűcsout: Tom Van De Looi
65'
🔁Pedro Bondo Franciscoout: Patricio Salas
65'
🔁Marcos Peñaout: Pedro Santos
65'
66'
🔁Dawda Camara Sankharéout: André Vidigal
66'
🔁Davy Guiout: Zé Rafael
74'
🔁Francisco Chiquinhoout: Matheus Franca
74'
🔁Lucas Figueiredo dos Santosout: Vivaldo Semedo
77'
⚽Vivaldo Semedoassist: Mateus Oliveira Mendes
🔁Georgios Koutsiasout: Umar Abubakar
78'
80'
🔁Isaac Jamesout: E. Jemide
85'
⚽André Vidigal (pen)

Match stats — Famalicao vs Alverca

65%Possession35%
13Shots14
2On target5
8Corners3
0.4xG2.92

Goals against chances

Famalicao1 from 0.40 xGmore than the chances were worth
Alverca4 from 2.92 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Famalicao 4-2-3-1
  • 25L. CarevićG
  • 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
  • 36M. MattaraD
  • 15Víctor RofinoD
  • 28Pedro FranciscoD
  • 8Marcos PeñaM
  • 21Tamás SzücsM
  • 23Gil DiasM
  • 14Mathias De AmorimM
  • 7SorrisoM
  • 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
  • 9U. AbubakarF
  • 2Gustavo GarciaD
  • 24Mathis JangealM
  • 19Paulo MoreiraM
  • 3L. RealpeD
  • 33P. SalasF
  • 10Pedro SantosF
  • 30V. SerafimovićD
  • 6T. van de LooiM
Coach: Carlos Carvalhal
Alverca 3-4-3
  • 31Matheus MendesG
  • 14S. BaseyaD
  • 21Sergi GómezD
  • 12I. JamesD
  • 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
  • 35RayanM
  • 6D. GuiM
  • 55Francisco ChissumbaM
  • 10ChiquinhoF
  • 19D. CamaraF
  • 22FigueiredoF
Substitutes
  • 91JhonatanG
  • 26Matheus FrançaF
  • 11C. NuozziF
  • 9Vivaldo SemedoF
  • 27Toni TamaritF
  • 2ZoubdiF
  • 7André VidigalF
  • 93Zé RafaelM
  • 4Y. BojangD
Coach: Sérgio Ferreira

Form going into Famalicao vs Alverca

Famalicao

Primeira Liga

  • W4-0away to Nacional19 September 2026

Alverca

Primeira Liga

  • W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Famalicao113441514+113
11Alverca113351415-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Alverca

  • 16 May 2026Famalicao 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
  • 4 January 2026Alverca 1–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 20 November 2021Alverca 1–2 FamalicaoTaça de Portugal

Leading scorers: Famalicao and Alverca

Famalicao

GoalsAssists

  • G. Koutsias50

Alverca

GoalsAssists

  • Vivaldo Semedo30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Alverca won 4–1 at Famalicao. The model had leaned towards a win for Famalicao at 49% and given a win for Alverca 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Francisco Chiquinho 14' for Alverca, Víctor Rofino Gordo 39' for Famalicao, Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos 56' for Alverca, Vivaldo Semedo 77' for Alverca, André Vidigal (penalty) 85' for Alverca. On expected goals it finished 0.40–2.92.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Famalicao a 7.4% chance to finish in the top four: 8.7% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 4.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.7%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

For Alverca the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.0% going in: 4.4% after a win, 7.2% after a draw, 9.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.4%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Famalicao v Alverca has moved

First published on 28 Sep at 45% / 30% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is Famalicao's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Famalicao win49%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Alverca win23%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.