Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon League One prediction

Brisbane Road, London

Our model says: Leyton Orient 1–0 AFC Wimbledon

The model makes it 52% Leyton Orient, 28% draw, 20% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.60, AFC Wimbledon 0.78.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to Leyton Orient: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Leyton Orient's rating is built from 59 League One matches and AFC Wimbledon's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Leyton Orient are 14th on 17 points from 13 games; AFC Wimbledon are 17th on 16 points from 14 games — League One.
  • Leyton Orient have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Cambridge United.
  • AFC Wimbledon have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Blackpool.
  • Last 6 meetings: Leyton Orient 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 August 2026, ended Leyton Orient 1–1 AFC Wimbledon.

More League One predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon

44%
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Leyton Orient win Draw AFC Wimbledon win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–012%
  4. 0–010%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Leyton Orient first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Leyton Orient at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon

Leyton Orient

League One

  • W3-0Cambridge United31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Burton Albion24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Reading21 October 2026
  • W2-0Blackpool17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bradford10 October 2026

AFC Wimbledon

League One

  • W1-0Blackpool14 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Stockport County31 October 2026
  • D1-1Wycombe24 October 2026
  • L0-3Mansfield Town20 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026

What these results say

  • AFC Wimbledon failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AFC Wimbledon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Leyton Orient135261914+517
17AFC Wimbledon144461021-1116

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Leyton Orient

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 4% today

Win 3%
Draw 5%
Defeat 6%

AFC Wimbledon

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 55% today

Win 47%
Draw 54%
Defeat 58%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon

  • 18 August 2026Leyton Orient 1–1 AFC WimbledonEFL Trophy
  • 17 March 2026AFC Wimbledon 2–4 Leyton OrientLeague One
  • 1 January 2026Leyton Orient 1–3 AFC WimbledonLeague One
  • 4 February 2023Leyton Orient 1–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
  • 8 November 2022AFC Wimbledon 2–0 Leyton OrientLeague Two
  • 6 October 2020Leyton Orient 2–0 AFC WimbledonEFL Trophy

Leading scorers: Leyton Orient and AFC Wimbledon

Leyton Orient

GoalsAssists

  • J. Kabia42

AFC Wimbledon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Stockley61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leyton Orient a 0.4% chance of the title and AFC Wimbledon 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 54% / 27% / 19% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 52% / 28% / 20%: the biggest move is Leyton Orient's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Leyton Orient win52%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. AFC Wimbledon win20%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Leyton Orient AFC Wimbledon
0.53 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.38
1.67 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.97
1.60 Model expected goals (this match) 0.78

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Leyton Orient the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Leyton Orient against 0.78 for AFC Wimbledon. Leyton Orient's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.97 for AFC Wimbledon.

Leyton Orient carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.04 for AFC Wimbledon.

How the model reaches 52% for Leyton Orient to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Leyton Orient to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Leyton Orient's ratings add 6 points and AFC Wimbledon's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 52%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level40%−2
  4. Leyton Orient's ratings46%+6
  5. AFC Wimbledon's ratings52%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Leyton OrientAFC Wimbledon
13Matches14
5W 2D 6LRecord4W 4D 6L
19 1.5 per gameGoals scored10 0.7 per game
14 1.1 per gameGoals conceded21 1.5 per game
6 of 13Clean sheets6 of 14
3 of 13Failed to score5 of 14
1 of 1Penalties scored–
23 1.8 per gameYellow cards23 1.6 per game
0Red cards1
3-4-2-1 6×Usual shape5-4-1 6×

Leyton Orient at home · AFC Wimbledon away

7Played7
3W 0D 4LRecord1W 1D 5L
10–10Goals for – against6–17
3 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Leyton Orient 13, AFC Wimbledon 14.

Leyton Orient scored 115524
AFC Wimbledon conceded 153335
AFC Wimbledon scored 242111
Leyton Orient conceded 222522

AFC Wimbledon score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Leyton Orient have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Leyton Orient

AFC Wimbledon

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.