Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday League One prediction

Oakwell, Barnsley

Our model says: Barnsley 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday

The model makes it 27% Barnsley, 26% draw, 47% Sheffield Wednesday — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Barnsley 1.15, Sheffield Wednesday 1.70.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

One-sided: Sheffield Wednesday are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Barnsley's rating is built from 59 League One matches and Sheffield Wednesday's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Barnsley are 23rd on 9 points from 13 games; Sheffield Wednesday are 5th on 23 points from 14 games — League One.
  • Barnsley have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Wigan.
  • Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Plymouth.
  • Last 6 meetings: Barnsley 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 May 2023, ended Barnsley 0–1 Sheffield Wednesday.

More League One predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday

56%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Barnsley win Draw Sheffield Wednesday win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–210%
  3. 0–19%
  4. 0–28%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 0–06%
  7. 1–06%

Scores read Barnsley first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sheffield Wednesday at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday

Barnsley

League One

  • L1-2away to Wigan14 November 2026
  • D1-1Oxford United31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Reading24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Luton20 October 2026
  • L1-2Cambridge United17 October 2026

Sheffield Wednesday

League One

  • W3-0Plymouth14 November 2026
  • D1-1Blackpool1 November 2026
  • D1-1Cambridge United27 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Doncaster24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Notts County20 October 2026

What these results say

  • Barnsley did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Barnsley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Barnsley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sheffield Wednesday failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sheffield Wednesday conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sheffield Wednesday had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
23Barnsley132381324-119
5Sheffield Wednesday146532514+1123

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Barnsley

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 54% today

Win 48%
Draw 54%
Defeat 57%

Sheffield Wednesday

Chance to finish in the top two · 12% today

Win 14%
Draw 10%
Defeat 10%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday

  • 29 May 2023Barnsley 0–1 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
  • 21 March 2023Barnsley 4–2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
  • 3 September 2022Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 BarnsleyLeague One
  • 17 July 2021Barnsley 2–0 Sheffield WednesdayFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 March 2021Barnsley 1–2 Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
  • 12 December 2020Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 BarnsleyChampionship

Leading scorers: Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday

Barnsley

No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Sheffield Wednesday

GoalsAssists

  • J. Lowe52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Barnsley a 0% chance of the title and Sheffield Wednesday 5.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 27% / 26% / 47%: the biggest move is Sheffield Wednesday's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Barnsley win27%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Sheffield Wednesday win47%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Barnsley Sheffield Wednesday
0.5 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.64
2.15 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.5
1.15 Model expected goals (this match) 1.70

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sheffield Wednesday the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Barnsley against 1.70 for Sheffield Wednesday. Barnsley's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.5 for Sheffield Wednesday.

Barnsley carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.42 for Sheffield Wednesday.

How the model reaches 47% for Sheffield Wednesday to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sheffield Wednesday to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Barnsley's ratings add 8 points and Sheffield Wednesday's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Barnsley's ratings39%+8
  4. Sheffield Wednesday's ratings47%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

BarnsleySheffield Wednesday
13Matches14
2W 3D 8LRecord6W 5D 3L
13 1.0 per gameGoals scored25 1.8 per game
24 1.8 per gameGoals conceded14 1.0 per game
1 of 13Clean sheets4 of 14
3 of 13Failed to score5 of 14
2 of 2Penalties scored3 of 3
30 2.3 per gameYellow cards29 2.1 per game
2Red cards2
4-2-3-1 12×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

Barnsley at home · Sheffield Wednesday away

6Played6
1W 2D 3LRecord3W 1D 2L
6–11Goals for – against8–9
0 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Barnsley 13, Sheffield Wednesday 14.

Barnsley scored 312232
Sheffield Wednesday conceded 222324
Sheffield Wednesday scored 227427
Barnsley conceded 313674

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Barnsley

Sheffield Wednesday

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.