Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons League One prediction

One Call Stadium, Mansfield

Our model says: Mansfield Town 2–1 Milton Keynes Dons

The model makes it 43% Mansfield Town, 25% draw, 32% Milton Keynes Dons — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Mansfield Town 1.85, Milton Keynes Dons 1.53.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Mansfield Town's rating is built from 59 League One matches and Milton Keynes Dons's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Mansfield Town are 12th on 19 points from 13 games; Milton Keynes Dons are 9th on 21 points from 14 games — League One.
  • Mansfield Town have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Wigan.
  • Milton Keynes Dons are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 6-2 win at home to Burton Albion.
  • Last 4 meetings: Milton Keynes Dons 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 April 2024, ended Milton Keynes Dons 1–4 Mansfield Town.

More League One predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons

66%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Mansfield Town win Draw Milton Keynes Dons win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 2–06%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 3–15%

Scores read Mansfield Town first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Mansfield Town at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons

Mansfield Town

League One

  • D0-0away to Wigan3 November 2026
  • L0-2Notts County31 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Blackpool24 October 2026
  • W3-0away to AFC Wimbledon20 October 2026
  • D1-1Oxford United15 October 2026

Milton Keynes Dons

League One

  • W6-2Burton Albion14 November 2026
  • W6-1Doncaster31 October 2026
  • W4-1Bromley27 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Stevenage24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Blackpool20 October 2026

What these results say

  • Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Milton Keynes Dons conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Mansfield Town135442018+219
9Milton Keynes Dons145632822+621

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Milton Keynes Dons

Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today

Win 7%
Draw 5%
Defeat 4%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons

  • 13 April 2024Milton Keynes Dons 1–4 Mansfield TownLeague Two
  • 5 March 2024Mansfield Town 1–2 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
  • 4 May 2019Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Mansfield TownLeague Two
  • 27 October 2018Mansfield Town 1–1 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two

Leading scorers: Mansfield Town and Milton Keynes Dons

Mansfield Town

GoalsAssists

  • M. Smith62

Milton Keynes Dons

GoalsAssists

  • A. Collins133

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Milton Keynes Dons (9th, with Mansfield Town 12th), while our numbers lean to Mansfield Town. Mansfield Town rate 0.59 in attack and 1.65 in defence, Milton Keynes Dons 0.75 and 2.04 (lower is better in defence), so Mansfield Town have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mansfield Town a 1.6% chance of the title and Milton Keynes Dons 2.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 46% / 25% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 43% / 25% / 32%: the biggest move is Mansfield Town's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Mansfield Town win43%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Milton Keynes Dons win32%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Mansfield Town Milton Keynes Dons
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.75
1.65 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.04
1.85 Model expected goals (this match) 1.53

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Mansfield Town the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Mansfield Town against 1.53 for Milton Keynes Dons. Mansfield Town's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/2.04 for Milton Keynes Dons.

Mansfield Town carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.37 for Milton Keynes Dons. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for Mansfield Town to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mansfield Town to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Mansfield Town's ratings take away 2 points and Milton Keynes Dons's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level44%+2
  4. Mansfield Town's ratings42%−2
  5. Milton Keynes Dons's ratings43%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Mansfield TownMilton Keynes Dons
13Matches14
5W 4D 4LRecord5W 6D 3L
20 1.5 per gameGoals scored28 2.0 per game
18 1.4 per gameGoals conceded22 1.6 per game
3 of 13Clean sheets3 of 14
5 of 13Failed to score3 of 14
0 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
28 2.2 per gameYellow cards24 1.7 per game
1Red cards0
3-1-4-2 13×Usual shape3-1-4-2 11×

Mansfield Town at home · Milton Keynes Dons away

6Played6
3W 2D 1LRecord1W 3D 2L
10–7Goals for – against7–10
1 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Mansfield Town 13, Milton Keynes Dons 14.

Mansfield Town scored 082532
Milton Keynes Dons conceded 213466

Mansfield Town score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Milton Keynes Dons have let in 1 there.

Milton Keynes Dons scored 243649
Mansfield Town conceded 045324

Milton Keynes Dons score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Mansfield Town have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Mansfield Town

Milton Keynes Dons

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.