Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Cambridge United vs Stockport County League One prediction

Abbey Stadium, Cambridge

Our model says: Cambridge United 1–2 Stockport County

The model makes it 32% Cambridge United, 27% draw, 41% Stockport County — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Cambridge United 1.36, Stockport County 1.61.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Stockport County: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Cambridge United's rating is built from 14 League One matches and Stockport County's from 64, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Cambridge United are 10th on 21 points from 14 games; Stockport County are 2nd on 29 points from 15 games — League One.
  • Cambridge United are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Leyton Orient.
  • Stockport County have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Reading.
  • Last 6 meetings: Cambridge United 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 December 2025, ended Stockport County 0–0 Cambridge United.

More League One predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Cambridge United vs Stockport County

60%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Cambridge United win Draw Stockport County win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 0–27%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Cambridge United first; the other scorelines share the remaining 44%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Stockport County at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Cambridge United vs Stockport County

Cambridge United

League One

  • L0-3away to Leyton Orient31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sheffield Wednesday27 October 2026
  • L2-3Plymouth24 October 2026
  • D2-2Wycombe20 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Barnsley17 October 2026

Stockport County

League One

  • W3-1Reading14 November 2026
  • W2-1AFC Wimbledon31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Oxford United27 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Notts County24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Doncaster20 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cambridge United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cambridge United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cambridge United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Stockport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Stockport County conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cambridge United145632121021
2Stockport County159242915+1429

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Stockport County

Chance to finish in the top two · 29% today

Win 33%
Draw 27%
Defeat 23%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Cambridge United vs Stockport County

  • 6 December 2025Stockport County 0–0 Cambridge UnitedFA Cup
  • 22 February 2025Cambridge United 2–0 Stockport CountyLeague One
  • 10 August 2024Stockport County 2–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
  • 5 January 2013Cambridge United 4–1 Stockport CountyNational League
  • 1 September 2012Stockport County 1–1 Cambridge UnitedNational League
  • 10 March 2012Stockport County 0–1 Cambridge UnitedNational League

Leading scorers: Cambridge United and Stockport County

Cambridge United

GoalsAssists

  • B. Knight42

Stockport County

GoalsAssists

  • K. Wootton102
  • J. Diamond63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cambridge United a 0.2% chance of the title and Stockport County 14.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Cambridge United Stockport County
0.58 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.67
1.95 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.53
1.36 Model expected goals (this match) 1.61

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Stockport County the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Cambridge United against 1.61 for Stockport County. Cambridge United's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.53 for Stockport County.

Cambridge United carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.44 for Stockport County.

How the model reaches 41% for Stockport County to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stockport County to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Cambridge United's ratings add 5 points and Stockport County's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Cambridge United's ratings36%+5
  4. Stockport County's ratings41%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Cambridge UnitedStockport County
14Matches15
5W 6D 3LRecord9W 2D 4L
21 1.5 per gameGoals scored29 1.9 per game
21 1.5 per gameGoals conceded15 1.0 per game
1 of 14Clean sheets5 of 15
1 of 14Failed to score3 of 15
–Penalties scored0 of 1
27 1.9 per gameYellow cards17 1.1 per game
3-4-2-1 8×Usual shape3-4-3 12×

Cambridge United at home · Stockport County away

7Played7
3W 2D 2LRecord3W 2D 2L
12–11Goals for – against10–5
1 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Cambridge United 14, Stockport County 15.

Cambridge United scored 103647
Stockport County conceded 423402

Cambridge United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Stockport County have let in 2 there.

Stockport County scored 371765
Cambridge United conceded 124356

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Cambridge United

Stockport County

  • vs Leyton Orient28 Nov · League Onewin 50%
  • at Mansfield Town1 Dec · League Onewin 36%
  • at Stevenage12 Dec · League Onewin 36%
  • vs Milton Keynes Dons19 Dec · League Onewin 49%
  • at Bradford26 Dec · League Onewin 34%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.