League One predictions

Friday 20 November — 1 match

• 20:00 UTC Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday — model 27% / 26% / 47%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.70 · 3.85 · 2.13. One-sided: Sheffield Wednesday

Saturday 21 November — 11 matches

• 12:30 UTC Reading vs Bromley — model 68% / 19% / 13%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.47 · 5.26 · 7.69. One-sided: Reading
• 12:30 UTC Blackpool vs Wigan — model 42% / 30% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.33 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 15:00 UTC Huddersfield vs Leicester — model 52% / 24% / 24%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.17 · 4.17. Edge: Huddersfield
• 15:00 UTC Burton Albion vs Luton — model 30% / 26% / 44%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 3.85 · 2.27. Edge: Luton
• 15:00 UTC Oxford United vs Wycombe — model 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.82 · 4.00 · 5.00. Edge: Oxford United
• 15:00 UTC Bradford vs Doncaster — model 47% / 31% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.23 · 4.55. Edge: Bradford
• 15:00 UTC Plymouth vs Peterborough — model 53% / 25% / 22%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.89 · 4.00 · 4.55. Edge: Plymouth
• 15:00 UTC Cambridge United vs Stockport County — model 32% / 27% / 41%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.13 · 3.70 · 2.44. Edge: Stockport County
• 15:00 UTC Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon — model 52% / 28% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.92 · 3.57 · 5.00. Edge: Leyton Orient
• 15:00 UTC Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons — model 43% / 25% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 4.00 · 3.13. Evenly matched
• 15:00 UTC Notts County vs Stevenage — model 39% / 32% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.13 · 3.45. Evenly matched

Tuesday 24 November — 2 matches

• 19:45 UTC Bradford vs Barnsley — model 49% / 30% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.33 · 4.76. Edge: Bradford
• 19:45 UTC Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday — model 34% / 30% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.33 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Thursday 26 November — 1 match

• 20:00 UTC Doncaster vs Huddersfield — model 25% / 26% / 49%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.00 · 3.85 · 2.04. One-sided: Huddersfield

Saturday 28 November — 11 matches

• 12:30 UTC Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County — model 45% / 26% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.85 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 12:30 UTC Peterborough vs Cambridge United — model 36% / 27% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.70 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
• 15:00 UTC Leicester vs Mansfield Town — model 42% / 26% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.85 · 3.13. Evenly matched
• 15:00 UTC Wigan vs Plymouth — model 31% / 29% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.45 · 2.50. Edge: Plymouth
• 15:00 UTC Sheffield Wednesday vs Reading — model 45% / 27% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.70 · 3.57. Evenly matched
• 15:00 UTC AFC Wimbledon vs Barnsley — model 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.45 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
• 15:00 UTC Wycombe vs Bradford — model 38% / 31% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.23 · 3.23. Evenly matched
• 15:00 UTC Luton vs Oxford United — model 36% / 28% / 36%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.57 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
• 15:00 UTC Stevenage vs Blackpool — model 47% / 29% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.45 · 4.17. Edge: Stevenage
• 15:00 UTC Bromley vs Burton Albion — model 31% / 25% / 44%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 4.00 · 2.27. Edge: Burton Albion
• 15:00 UTC Stockport County vs Leyton Orient — model 50% / 27% / 23%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.00 · 3.70 · 4.35. Edge: Stockport County

Last round: the model's hits and misses

14 November: the model called the result of 4 of 5 matches. Across all 76 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 55% of results.

• AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Blackpool — the model said 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Milton Keynes Dons 6–2 Burton Albion — the model said 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Sheffield Wednesday 3–0 Plymouth — the model said 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Stockport County 3–1 Reading — the model said 43% / 27% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Wigan 2–1 Barnsley — the model said 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result correct.

League One so far

Top of the table

• 1. Huddersfield — 29 pts from 14 (8W 5D 1L, goals 28–12)
• 2. Stockport County — 29 pts from 15 (9W 2D 4L, goals 29–15)
• 3. Oxford United — 26 pts from 13 (7W 5D 1L, goals 22–11)
• 4. Luton — 24 pts from 14 (7W 3D 4L, goals 27–21)
• 5. Sheffield Wednesday — 23 pts from 14 (6W 5D 3L, goals 25–14)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 389 matches left: Huddersfield 32.2%, Oxford United 28.2%, Stockport County 14.3%.

Leading scorers: A. Collins (Milton Keynes Dons) 13 goals, K. Wootton (Stockport County) 10 goals, J. Taylor (Huddersfield) 10 goals.