Regular Season - 16 · 28 November 2026, 15:45 UTC

Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv First League prediction

Ticha, Varna

Our model says: Cherno More Varna 0–1 Botev Plovdiv

The model makes it 33% Cherno More Varna, 28% draw, 39% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Cherno More Varna 1.28, Botev Plovdiv 1.46.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Edge to Botev Plovdiv: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Cherno More Varna's rating is built from 50 Bulgarian First League matches and Botev Plovdiv's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.

Key facts

Cherno More Varna are 9th on 13 points from 14 games; Botev Plovdiv are 5th on 23 points from 14 games — First League.
Cherno More Varna are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Slavia Sofia.
Botev Plovdiv have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Dunav Ruse.
Last 6 meetings: Botev Plovdiv 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Cherno More Varna.

More Bulgarian First League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv

56%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Cherno More Varna win Draw Botev Plovdiv win

1–113%
0–19%
1–29%
2–18%
1–08%
0–07%
0–27%

Scores read Cherno More Varna first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Botev Plovdiv at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv

Cherno More Varna

First League

D0-0away to Slavia Sofia7 November 2026
W1-0Botev Vratsa2 November 2026
W2-0Septemvri Sofia27 October 2026
L0-2Levski Sofia11 October 2026
D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026

Botev Plovdiv

First League

D1-1Dunav Ruse6 November 2026
W5-2away to Lokomotiv Sofia30 October 2026
L0-4away to CSKA 194823 October 2026
W1-0Slavia Sofia10 October 2026
W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia19 September 2026

What these results say

Every one of these 5 matches for Cherno More Varna had two goals or fewer.
Botev Plovdiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
9	Cherno More Varna	14	3	4	7	14	22	-8	13
5	Botev Plovdiv	14	7	2	5	23	21	+2	23

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Cherno More Varna

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today

Win 16%

Draw 29%

Defeat 36%

Botev Plovdiv

Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today

Win 12%

Draw 7%

Defeat 6%

From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv

1 August 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
16 May 2026Botev Plovdiv 5–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
9 May 2026Cherno More Varna 2–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
29 November 2025Botev Plovdiv 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
27 July 2025Cherno More Varna 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
5 April 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League

Leading scorers: Cherno More Varna and Botev Plovdiv

Cherno More Varna

No player in First League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Botev Plovdiv

GoalsAssists

C. Meotti10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Cherno More Varna Botev Plovdiv

0.5 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.71

1.77 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.85

1.28 Model expected goals (this match) 1.46

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Botev Plovdiv the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cherno More Varna against 1.46 for Botev Plovdiv. Cherno More Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.85 for Botev Plovdiv.

How the model reaches 39% for Botev Plovdiv to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Botev Plovdiv to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Cherno More Varna's ratings add 4 points and Botev Plovdiv's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.

Two average sides, neutral ground35%
Home advantage31%−4
Cherno More Varna's ratings35%+4
Botev Plovdiv's ratings39%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Cherno More VarnaModelBotev Plovdiv

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

76%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

52%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

29%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

56%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Cherno More VarnaBotev Plovdiv

14Matches14

3W 4D 7LRecord7W 2D 5L

14 1.0 per gameGoals scored23 1.6 per game

22 1.6 per gameGoals conceded21 1.5 per game

3 of 14Clean sheets4 of 14

5 of 14Failed to score3 of 14

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1

41 2.9 per gameYellow cards31 2.2 per game

2Red cards0

4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Cherno More Varna at home · Botev Plovdiv away

7Played7

3W 1D 3LRecord3W 0D 4L

10–11Goals for – against13–14

2 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Cherno More VarnaBotev Plovdiv

Cherno More Varna are 9th after 14 First League matches (between 7th and 14th so far); Botev Plovdiv are 5th after 14 (between 5th and 8th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All First League matches this season: Cherno More Varna 14, Botev Plovdiv 14.

Cherno More Varna scored 322133

Botev Plovdiv conceded 123508

Botev Plovdiv scored 346543

Cherno More Varna conceded 052456

Botev Plovdiv score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Cherno More Varna have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Cherno More Varna

at Ludogorets5 Dec · First Leaguewin 13%
vs CSKA 194813 Feb · First Leaguewin 22%
at Dunav Ruse20 Feb · First Leaguewin 30%
vs CSKA Sofia27 Feb · First Leaguewin 18%

Botev Plovdiv

at Spartak Varna5 Dec · First Leaguewin 46%
vs Ludogorets13 Feb · First Leaguewin 24%
vs Botev Vratsa20 Feb · First Leaguewin 52%
at Levski Sofia27 Feb · First Leaguewin 17%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.