Bulgarian First League predictions & fixtures

Friday 20 November — 1 match

16:00 UTC Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — model 32% / 33% / 35%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.03 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 21 November — 2 matches

12:45 UTC Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali — model 37% / 32% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.13 · 3.23. Evenly matched
15:15 UTC Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna — model 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.45 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Sunday 22 November — 3 matches

11:00 UTC Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 — model 20% / 25% / 55%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.00 · 4.00 · 1.82. One-sided: CSKA 1948
13:30 UTC Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia — model 71% / 18% / 11%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.41 · 5.56 · 9.09. One-sided: Levski Sofia
16:00 UTC Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia — model 24% / 26% / 50%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.17 · 3.85 · 2.00. One-sided: CSKA Sofia

Monday 23 November — 1 match

16:00 UTC Ludogorets vs Dunav Ruse — model 65% / 21% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.54 · 4.76 · 7.14. One-sided: Ludogorets

Friday 27 November — 1 match

16:00 UTC Lokomotiv Sofia vs Slavia Sofia — model 34% / 31% / 35%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.23 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 28 November — 3 matches

10:45 UTC Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna — model 41% / 31% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.23 · 3.57. Evenly matched
13:15 UTC Botev Vratsa vs Ludogorets — model 17% / 26% / 57%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.88 · 3.85 · 1.75. One-sided: Ludogorets
15:45 UTC Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv — model 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.57 · 2.56. Edge: Botev Plovdiv

Sunday 29 November — 3 matches

10:30 UTC Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA 1948 — model 26% / 25% / 49%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.85 · 4.00 · 2.04. Edge: CSKA 1948
13:00 UTC Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia — model 13% / 23% / 64%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 7.69 · 4.35 · 1.56. One-sided: Levski Sofia
15:30 UTC Dunav Ruse vs CSKA Sofia — model 19% / 25% / 56%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.26 · 4.00 · 1.79. One-sided: CSKA Sofia

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 0 of 7 matches. Across all 93 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 53% of results.

Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv Sofia — the model said 33% / 26% / 41%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Dunav Ruse — the model said 51% / 24% / 25%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Botev Vratsa 1–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — the model said 39% / 34% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Slavia Sofia 0–0 Cherno More Varna — the model said 41% / 32% / 27%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Ludogorets 2–2 CSKA 1948 — the model said 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Spartak Varna 3–2 Arda Kardzhali — the model said 28% / 27% / 45%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Levski Sofia 0–3 CSKA Sofia — the model said 46% / 29% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result missed.

Bulgarian First League so far

Top of the table

1. CSKA Sofia — 34 pts from 14 (10W 4D 0L, goals 32–9)
2. Levski Sofia — 32 pts from 13 (10W 2D 1L, goals 25–8)
3. Ludogorets — 30 pts from 13 (9W 3D 1L, goals 26–11)
4. CSKA 1948 — 29 pts from 14 (9W 2D 3L, goals 33–16)
5. Botev Plovdiv — 23 pts from 14 (7W 2D 5L, goals 23–21)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 85 matches left: Levski Sofia 40.1%, CSKA Sofia 39.7%, Ludogorets 16.5%.

Leading scorers: Frédéric Maciel (CSKA 1948) 3 goals, Bruno Jordão (CSKA Sofia) 2 goals, Elias Franco (CSKA 1948) 2 goals.