Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions

Saturday 28 November — 7 matches

• 18:00 UTC Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — model 72% / 17% / 11%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.39 · 5.88 · 9.09. One-sided: Maccabi Tel Aviv
• 18:00 UTC Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Jerusalem — model 58% / 24% / 18%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.17 · 5.56. One-sided: Beitar Jerusalem
• 18:00 UTC Hapoel Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias — model 34% / 28% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.57 · 2.63. Evenly matched
• 18:00 UTC Bnei Sakhnin vs Maccabi Haifa — model 24% / 27% / 49%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.17 · 3.70 · 2.04. Edge: Maccabi Haifa
• 18:00 UTC Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — model 28% / 27% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 3.70 · 2.22. Edge: Ironi Kiryat Shmona
• 18:00 UTC Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv — model 18% / 22% / 60%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 5.56 · 4.55 · 1.67. One-sided: Hapoel Tel Aviv
• 18:00 UTC Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — model 30% / 25% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 4.00 · 2.22. Edge: Hapoel Beer Sheva

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 1 of 7 matches. Across all 58 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 53% of results.

• Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–2 Maccabi Petah Tikva — the model said 78% / 13% / 9%, most likely 3-1: result missed.
• Hapoel Petah Tikva 2–1 Hapoel Ramat Gan — the model said 39% / 30% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Maccabi Haifa 0–4 Maccabi Netanya — the model said 49% / 23% / 28%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Hapoel Jerusalem 1–1 Bnei Sakhnin — the model said 37% / 32% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2–0 Hapoel Haifa — the model said 36% / 27% / 37%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Ironi Tiberias 1–1 Beitar Jerusalem — the model said 24% / 27% / 49%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
• Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–1 Hapoel Tel Aviv — the model said 38% / 27% / 35%, most likely 2-1: result missed.

Israeli Ligat Ha'al so far

Top of the table

• 1. Hapoel Tel Aviv — 25 pts from 10 (8W 1D 1L, goals 21–6)
• 2. Maccabi Tel Aviv — 24 pts from 10 (7W 3D 0L, goals 31–10)
• 3. Hapoel Beer Sheva — 22 pts from 10 (7W 1D 2L, goals 22–13)
• 4. Beitar Jerusalem — 18 pts from 10 (5W 3D 2L, goals 14–11)
• 5. Maccabi Haifa — 18 pts from 10 (6W 0D 4L, goals 21–20)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 112 matches left: Maccabi Tel Aviv 55.5%, Hapoel Tel Aviv 29%, Hapoel Beer Sheva 13.3%.

Leading scorers: Dor Peretz (Maccabi Tel Aviv) 7 goals, A. Turgeman (Hapoel Haifa) 5 goals, N. Vrasana (Hapoel Jerusalem) 5 goals.