Monza vs Sassuolo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Monza 2-1 Sassuolo.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Monza, 28% draw, 32% Sassuolo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Monza at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monza vs Sassuolo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. TornqvistG
- 60E. KouadioD
- 3L. LucchesiD
- 44A. CarboniD
- 19S. BirindelliM
- 90M. FolorunshoM
- 14E. AkinsanmiroM
- 7R. MangasM
- 10P. CutroneF
- 46J. RobinsonF
- 9G. VarelaF
- 20D. ThiamG
- 43A. StrajnarG
- 6V. AntovD
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 24A. BakouneD
- 5Y. MayeD
- 21L. ColomboM
- 8F. OndoaM
- 28A. ColpaniM
- 49A. MuricG
- 46S. CinquegranoD
- 15D. Caleta-CarD
- 16F. LeysenD
- 3J. DoigD
- 42K. ThorstvedtM
- 18N. MaticM
- 50D. BakolaM
- 10D. BerardiF
- 94S. EspositoF
- 45A. LaurienteF
- 80S. TuratiG
- 12G. SatalinoG
- 26C. OdenthalD
- 20I. Van der BremptD
- 33R. ObradorD
- 8A. GhionM
- 35L. LipaniM
- 17V. AdzicM
- 55I. SulemanaM
Form going into Monza vs Sassuolo
Monza
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
- L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Inter22 August 2026
Sassuolo
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
- W2-1Torino29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atalanta23 August 2026
What these results say
- Monza did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Monza scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Monza conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sassuolo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Sassuolo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Monza | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monza vs Sassuolo
- 3 August 2024Monza 2–2 SassuoloFriendlies Clubs
- 28 January 2024Monza 1–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 2 October 2023Sassuolo 0–1 MonzaSerie A
- 19 May 2023Sassuolo 1–2 MonzaSerie A
- 22 January 2023Monza 1–1 SassuoloSerie A
Leading scorers: Monza and Sassuolo
Monza
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Varela91
Sassuolo
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monza beat Sassuolo 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Monza at 40%. The goals: G. Varela 51' for Monza, G. Varela (penalty) 63' for Monza, V. Adzic 88' for Sassuolo. On expected goals it finished 1.45–1.58.
How the call on Monza v Sassuolo has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Monza's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Monza win40%▼ −6
- Draw28%=
- Sassuolo win32%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.