Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Atletico Mineiro, 28% draw, 28% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Mineiro at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense
Line-ups
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 40VitãoD
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 36K. PasciniD
- 8MayconM
- 5AlexsanderM
- 28T. CuelloM
- 7FredM
- 11BernardM
- 27A. MindaF
- 15K. CastañoM
- 9M. CassierraF
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 21A. FrancoM
- 6Renan LodiD
- 92DuduF
- 31RobertG
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 25T. PérezM
- 98AndersonG
- 23DuduD
- 21Kauan Faria GomesD
- 3DomaD
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 27CamiloM
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 31GarcezM
- 9Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraF
- 70RubensM
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 12FernandoD
- 19David AntunesM
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 77D. BorreroF
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 30Matheus AurélioG
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense
Atletico Mineiro
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sao Paulo5 September 2026
- W2-1Vitoria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Internacional22 August 2026
- W3-0Gremio16 August 2026
Chapecoense
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
- D3-3Bahia16 August 2026
What these results say
- Chapecoense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chapecoense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 51 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 70 | -37 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense
- 2 April 2026Chapecoense 0–4 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 6 October 2021Chapecoense 2–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 21 June 2021Atletico Mineiro 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 30 October 2019Atletico Mineiro 0–2 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 14 July 2019Chapecoense 1–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
The result against the call
Atletico Mineiro and Chapecoense drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Mineiro at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira 44' for Chapecoense, Mateo Cassierra 69' for Atletico Mineiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.