Mirassol vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Mirassol 2-0 Botafogo.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Mirassol, 30% draw, 30% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Mirassol at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mirassol vs Botafogo
Line-ups
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 27DenilsonM
- 25Neto MouraM
- 95EdsonM
- 33EduardoM
- 10ChicoM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 9André LuísF
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 17FernandinhoF
- 44GabrielD
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 5JapaM
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 7ShaylonM
- 90ThomazellaG
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 33L. MonzónD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 75HuguinhoM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 90DaniloF
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 22H. ZiyechM
- 3Arthur ChavesD
- 17WarlesonG
- 77L. VillalbaF
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 21MarçalD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 34G. JustinoD
Form going into Mirassol vs Botafogo
Mirassol
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Vitoria13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Coritiba6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Flamengo2 September 2026
- D1-1Palmeiras30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Santos23 August 2026
Botafogo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
- L2-3Atletico Paranaense24 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria16 August 2026
What these results say
- Mirassol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mirassol | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 41 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Botafogo
- 1 April 2026Botafogo 3–2 MirassolSerie A
- 1 November 2025Mirassol 0–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 17 September 2025Botafogo 3–3 MirassolSerie A
Leading scorers: Mirassol and Botafogo
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mirassol beat Botafogo 2–0. The model had made a win for Mirassol its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve 16' for Mirassol, Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve 45+2' for Mirassol.
How the call on Mirassol v Botafogo has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is Botafogo's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Mirassol win40%▲ +1
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Botafogo win30%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.