31 July 2026, 18:30 UTC

Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Motor Lublin 1-2 Jagiellonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Motor Lublin, 21% draw, 38% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.44, 4.76 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Motor Lublin at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motor Lublin0%Draw6%Jagiellonia94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
⚽N. Prelec
40'
Guilherme Montóia
62'
🔁R. Conceicaoout: J. Agbonifo
68'
🔁J. Imazout: A. Klynge
68'
🔁N. Prelecout: D. Rallis
🔁T. Santosout: M. Aiko
79'
🔁M. Legowskiout: P. Meyer
79'
82'
Bernardo Vital
⚽K. Czubakassist: M. Ndiaye
82'
85'
⚽S. Lozanoassist: K. Szmyt
🔁Y. Bourhaneout: T. Plavotic
86'
🔁Kikisout: F. Haxha
87'
87'
🔁S. Lozanoout: A. Konstantopoulos
87'
🔁K. Szmytout: K. Jozwiak
90+2'
Kamil Jóźwiak

Match stats — Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

46%Possession54%
21Shots13
7On target4
4Corners2
2.02xG0.89

Goals against chances

Motor Lublin1 from 2.02 xGless than the chances were worth
Jagiellonia2 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1
  • 71M. PopaG
  • 29T. SantosD
  • 18B. BereszynskiD
  • 39M. BartosD
  • 24F. LubereckiD
  • 27Y. BourhaneM
  • 30M. NdiayeM
  • 8KikisM
  • 6M. LegowskiM
  • 11Fabio RonaldoM
  • 10K. CzubakF
Substitutes
  • 33G. TratnikG
  • 4T. PlavoticD
  • 70M. AikoM
  • 2P. MeyerD
  • 20K. PlichtaF
  • 5A. AkatovD
  • 16F. LewandowskiM
  • 23F. HaxhaM
  • 22M. ZlomanczukM
Coach: Mariusz Misiura
Jagiellonia 4-4-2
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 15N. WojtuszekD
  • 5B. VitalD
  • 4Y. KobayashiD
  • 23G. MontoiaD
  • 27R. ConceicaoM
  • 6T. RomanczukM
  • 21S. LozanoM
  • 7K. SzmytM
  • 11J. ImazF
  • 99N. PrelecF
Substitutes
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 2C. PolakD
  • 85E. KozlowskiM
  • 9D. RallisF
  • 80Z. ZalewskiM
  • 72K. JozwiakM
  • 17Y. SyllaF
Coach: Adrian Siemieniec

Form going into Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

Motor Lublin

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026

Jagiellonia

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Motor Lublin145452224-219
9Jagiellonia137061818021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia

  • 7 February 2026Jagiellonia 4–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 14 December 2025Motor Lublin 1–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 16 February 2025Jagiellonia 3–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 25 September 2024Motor Lublin 0–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 17 January 2024Jagiellonia 0–0 Motor LublinFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 July 2023Motor Lublin 1–1 JagielloniaFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia

Motor Lublin

GoalsAssists

  • K. Czubak70
  • M. Ndiaye43

Jagiellonia

GoalsAssists

  • N. Prelec42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Jagiellonia won 2–1 at Motor Lublin. The model had leaned towards a win for Motor Lublin at 41% and given a win for Jagiellonia 38%. The goals: N. Prelec 33' for Jagiellonia, K. Czubak 82' for Motor Lublin, S. Lozano 85' for Jagiellonia. On expected goals it finished 2.02–0.89.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.