24 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Oțelul vs Arges Pitesti Liga I prediction & result

Stadionul Otelul, Galati
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Oțelul 1-0 Arges Pitesti.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Oțelul, 28% draw, 34% Arges Pitesti — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Oțelul at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Oțelul96%Draw4%Arges Pitesti0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
C. Tofan
46'
🔁R. Sierraout: I. Radescu
⚽J. Lameiraassist: A. Ciobanu
51'
60'
🔁Y. Pirvuout: T. Luvambo
60'
🔁F. Bortaout: D. Oancea
60'
🔁C. Tofanout: C. Micovschi
🔁G. Christopoulosout: M. Zhelev
64'
🔁M. Frunzaout: D. Bordun
70'
75'
🔁V. Rataout: G. Charpentier
🔁A. Ciobanuout: T. Lungu
80'
T. Lungu
88'
90+2'
D. Oancea
J. Lameira
90+3'

Match stats — Oțelul vs Arges Pitesti

62%Possession38%
17Shots13
5On target2
2Corners3

Line-ups

Oțelul
  • 1Cosmin Dur-BozoancăG
  • 5Habib SyllaD
  • 3Giannis ChristopoulosD
  • 6Paul IacobD
  • 28Miguel SilvaD
  • 17Andrei CiobanuM
  • 8João LameiraM
  • 27Pedro NunoM
  • 30Matei FrunzăF
  • 9Patrick FernandesF
  • 10AndrézinhoF
Substitutes
  • 2Milen ZhelevD
  • 24Denis BordunM
  • 39Teodor LunguM
  • 12Darius PaharnicuG
  • 13Mario ContraG
  • 16Dan NeicuD
  • 20Robert OlteanuM
  • 18Dragoș AfteneM
  • 7João PaulinoF
Coach: Stjepan Tomas
Arges Pitesti
  • 34Cătălin CăbuzG
  • 23Florin BorțaD
  • 6Mario TudoseD
  • 15Guilherme GaruttiD
  • 2Costinel TofanD
  • 27Rober SierraM
  • 69Oluwatobiloba AlagbeM
  • 22Vadim RațăM
  • 17Ricardo MatosF
  • 11Yanis PîrvuF
  • 99Robert MoldoveanuF
Substitutes
  • 16Ionuț RădescuM
  • 26Dorinel OanceaD
  • 19Claudiu MicovschiF
  • 92Taylor LuvamboD
  • 9Gabriel CharpentierF
  • 1Cătălin StratonG
  • 4Evagoras AntoniouD
  • 96Silviu BalaureM
  • 20Patrick DulceaM
Coach: Ioan Andone Bogdan

Form going into Oțelul vs Arges Pitesti

Oțelul

  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova16 August 2026

Arges Pitesti

  • D1-1Farul Constanta14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Oțelul9243912-310
10Arges Pitesti932457-211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Arges Pitesti

  • 20 December 2025Oțelul 2–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
  • 18 August 2025Arges Pitesti 2–0 OțelulLiga I

Leading scorers: Oțelul and Arges Pitesti

Oțelul

  • Patrick4 goals

Arges Pitesti

  • R. Moldoveanu3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.