24 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Bologna vs Lazio Serie A prediction & result

Bologna
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Bologna 0-1 Lazio.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Bologna, 27% draw, 35% Lazio — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bologna at 38% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bologna0%Draw4%Lazio96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
🔁A. Marusicout: R. Floriani
22'
Romano Floriani Mussolini
Oussama El Azzouzi
34'
34'
Boulaye Dia
Nicolò Cambiaghi
41'
44'
Matteo Cancellieri
46'
🔁M. Cancellieriout: G. Isaksen
54'
🔁F. Dele-Bashiruout: D. Frattesi
59'
⚽D. Frattesiassist: B. Dia
🔁R. Orsoliniout: F. Bernardeschi
60'
🔁N. Cambiaghiout: J. Rowe
60'
🔁R. Piccoliout: A. Dovbyk
60'
🔁N. Zorteaout: E. Holm
69'
78'
🔁A. Pedrazaout: N. Tavares
🔁O. El Azzouziout: M. Amondarain
79'
79'
🔁B. Diaout: T. Noslin
Torbjørn Heggem
83'
Jens Odgaard
83'
90+3'
Oliver Provstgaard

Match stats — Bologna vs Lazio

59%Possession41%
13Shots10
5On target3
8Corners6
1.7xG0.58

Goals against chances

Bologna0 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Lazio1 from 0.58 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bologna 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. SkorupskiG
  • 20N. ZorteaD
  • 5E. Fauske HellandD
  • 14T. HeggemD
  • 33J. MirandaD
  • 17O. El AzzouziM
  • 19L. FergusonM
  • 7R. OrsoliniM
  • 21J. OdgaardM
  • 28N. CambiaghiM
  • 91R. PiccoliF
Substitutes
  • 25M. PessinaG
  • 72U. HapponenG
  • 29L. De SilvestriD
  • 41M. VitikD
  • 23R. AlhassaneD
  • 6N. MoroM
  • 4T. PobegaM
  • 2E. HolmD
  • 8M. AmondarainM
Coach: Domenico Tedesco
Lazio 4-3-3
  • 35C. MandasG
  • 77A. MarusicD
  • 5D. DoekhiD
  • 25O. ProvstgaardD
  • 23A. PedrazaD
  • 7F. Dele-BashiruM
  • 6N. RovellaM
  • 24K. TaylorM
  • 22M. CancellieriF
  • 19B. DiaF
  • 10M. ZaccagniF
Substitutes
  • 47D. RenzettiG
  • 40E. MottaG
  • 13A. RomagnoliD
  • 17N. TavaresD
  • 15R. FlorianiD
  • 33R. BordonD
  • 29M. LazzariM
  • 16D. FrattesiM
  • 21R. BelahyaneM
Coach: Gennaro Gattuso

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Bologna401325-31
4Lazio431063+310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bologna vs Lazio

  • 24 August 2026Bologna 0–1 LazioSerie A
  • 22 March 2026Bologna 0–2 LazioSerie A
  • 11 February 2026Bologna 1–1 LazioCoppa Italia
  • 7 December 2025Lazio 1–1 BolognaSerie A
  • 16 March 2025Bologna 5–0 LazioSerie A
  • 24 November 2024Lazio 3–0 BolognaSerie A

Leading scorers: Bologna and Lazio

Bologna

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Lazio

  • D. Frattesi3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.