24 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv First League prediction & result

Hristo Botev Stadium, Vraca
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Botev Vratsa 1-0 Botev Plovdiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Botev Vratsa, 21% draw, 54% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 4.00, 4.76 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Botev Plovdiv at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Botev Vratsa94%Draw6%Botev Plovdiv0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Preslav Borukov
23'
Ivan Goranov
31'
40'
🔁Vladimir Mendesout: Bogdan Kostov
46'
🔁Nikola Ilievout: Mauro Rodrigues
46'
🔁Chidera Micheal Okohout: Franklin Mascote
Martin Smolenski
55'
56'
Simeon Petrov
🔁Abdullah Kichukovout: Radoslav Tsonev
61'
🔁Martin Smolenskiout: Vladislav Naydenov
61'
66'
🔁Asen Chandarovout: Edson Silva
🔁Preslav Borukovout: Daniel Genov
70'
Vladislav Naydenov
75'
75'
🔁Carlos Meottiout: Dimitar Tonev
Daniel Genov
76'
78'
Mauro Rodrigues
🔁José Gallegosout: Filip Gigov
83'
90+1'
Dimitar Tonev

Line-ups

Botev Vratsa 3-2-4-1
  • 98Lyubomir VasilevG
  • 4Ivan GoranovD
  • 36Milen StoevD
  • 3Sainey SanyangD
  • 6Abdullah KichukovM
  • 12Iliya YurukovM
  • 81Kassim HadjiM
  • 24Martin SmolenskiM
  • 10José GallegosM
  • 79Martin PetkovF
  • 99Preslav BorukovF
Substitutes
  • 97Vladislav NaydenovM
  • 7Radoslav TsonevM
  • 9Daniel GenovM
  • 90Filip GigovF
  • 23Luboslav StoyanovG
  • 21Martin DimitrovD
  • 88Lazar BoyanovD
  • 25Aleksandar BuchkovD
  • 17Samuil MechevF
Coach: Todor Simov
Botev Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 29Daniel NaumovG
  • 82Vladimir MendesD
  • 87Simeon PetrovD
  • 22Marvin SengerD
  • 27Bryan-Anthony Chibuike HeinD
  • 77Lucas AraujoM
  • 10Asen ChandarovM
  • 66Carlos MeottiM
  • 7Nikola IlievM
  • 90Samuel KaluM
  • 9Chidera Micheal OkohF
Substitutes
  • 15Bogdan KostovD
  • 19Mauro RodriguesM
  • 30Franklin MascoteF
  • 45Edson SilvaM
  • 23Dimitar TonevM
  • 21Nikolay PrandzhevG
  • 16Ivaylo VidevD
  • 4Nikola SoldoD
  • 20Timothy AwanyD
Coach: Stanislav Genchev

Form going into Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv

Botev Vratsa

  • L0-5away to CSKA Sofia16 August 2026

Botev Plovdiv

  • L0-2away to Ludogorets15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Botev Vratsa9225717-108
6Botev Plovdiv94141314-113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv

  • 24 August 2026Botev Vratsa 1–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 14 March 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–3 Botev VratsaFirst League
  • 5 October 2025Botev Vratsa 1–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 23 November 2024Botev Plovdiv 3–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
  • 21 July 2024Botev Vratsa 1–3 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 12 April 2024Botev Plovdiv 2–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.