PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: PAOK 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% PAOK, 26% draw, 26% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PAOK at 48% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis
Line-ups
- 1J. PavlenkaG
- 3J. KennyD
- 19Diego CostaD
- 5G. MichailidisD
- 21A. BabaD
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 16O. UgresićM
- 14A. ŽivkovićM
- 10D. PelkasM
- 11TaisonM
- 27C. NdiayeF
- 97D. BataoulasD
- 2M. CamaraM
- 52D. ChatsidisF
- 18K. JakićM
- 78G. KosidisD
- 56A. MythouF
- 7B. SantamaríaM
- 47S. ShoretireF
- 32G. TaylorD
- 33Ricardo VelhoG
- 27N. FadigaD
- 4FabianoD
- 44B. ŠutaloD
- 3O. RichardsD
- 20T. Dele-BashiruM
- 10U. RačićM
- 7B. GarréM
- 97F. JensenM
- 70G. GianniotasM
- 9T. KadewereF
- 8C. KouaméF
- 5Manu GarcíaM
- 41Konstantinos CharoupasM
- 49O. BoussaidM
- 24Apostolos barbopoulosG
- 21L. MajkićG
- 17Rafa MirF
- 80Loren MorónF
- 34S. PalaciosF
Form going into PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis
PAOK
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
- W4-0Levadiakos23 August 2026
Aris Thessalonikis
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
- W2-1OFI30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Kalamata22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PAOK | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 7 | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis
- 13 September 2026PAOK 2–0 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 8 February 2026Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 7 December 2025PAOK 3–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 3 December 2025Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 PAOKCup
- 19 January 2025Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 29 September 2024PAOK 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis
PAOK
- D. Pelkas3 goals
- A. Živković2 goals2 assists
Aris Thessalonikis
- Fabiano2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.