PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: PAOK 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% PAOK, 26% draw, 26% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
PAOK at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis
Line-ups
- 1J. PavlenkaG
- 3J. KennyD
- 19Diego CostaD
- 5G. MichailidisD
- 21A. BabaD
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 16O. UgresićM
- 14A. ŽivkovićM
- 10D. PelkasM
- 11TaisonM
- 27C. NdiayeF
- 97D. BataoulasD
- 2M. CamaraM
- 52D. ChatsidisF
- 18K. JakićM
- 78G. KosidisD
- 56A. MythouF
- 7B. SantamaríaM
- 47S. ShoretireF
- 32G. TaylorD
- 33Ricardo VelhoG
- 27N. FadigaD
- 4FabianoD
- 44B. ŠutaloD
- 3O. RichardsD
- 20T. Dele-BashiruM
- 10U. RačićM
- 7B. GarréM
- 97F. JensenM
- 70G. GianniotasM
- 9T. KadewereF
- 8C. KouaméF
- 5Manu GarcíaM
- 41Konstantinos CharoupasM
- 49O. BoussaidM
- 24Apostolos barbopoulosG
- 21L. MajkićG
- 17Rafa MirF
- 80Loren MorónF
- 34S. PalaciosF
Form going into PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis
PAOK
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Brann27 August 2026
- W4-0Levadiakos23 August 2026
- D1-1Brann20 August 2026
Aris Thessalonikis
All competitions we cover
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
- W2-1OFI30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Kalamata22 August 2026
What these results say
- PAOK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PAOK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAOK had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PAOK | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis
- 8 February 2026Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 7 December 2025PAOK 3–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 3 December 2025Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 PAOKCup
- 19 January 2025Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 29 September 2024PAOK 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- C. Ndiaye40
- A. Živković35
- D. Pelkas30
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano40
- C. Kouamé30
- T. Kadewere30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PAOK beat Aris Thessalonikis 2–0. The model had made a win for PAOK its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Cherif Ndiaye (penalty) 32' for PAOK, Andrija Živković 42' for PAOK.
How the call on PAOK v Aris Thessalonikis has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is PAOK's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- PAOK win48%▼ −4
- Draw26%=
- Aris Thessalonikis win26%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.