Petrolul Ploiesti vs Oțelul Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Petrolul Ploiesti 1-0 Oțelul.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Petrolul Ploiesti, 18% draw, 63% Oțelul — fair odds of 5.26, 5.56 and 1.59. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oțelul at 63% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Petrolul Ploiesti vs Oțelul
Line-ups
- 38Lukáš ZimaG
- 22Mark ȚuțuD
- 4Paul PappD
- 71Breston MalulaD
- 2Andres DumitrescuD
- 20Sergiu HancaM
- 19Léo TeixeiraM
- 10Alejandro BranM
- 99Dele IsraelM
- 7Rodrigo MartinsM
- 9Dan N'LunduluF
- 18Calal HuseinovD
- 26Liviu ArgeșanuD
- 24Adam ZaianD
- 30Rareș LeescuD
- 66Tiberiu CăpuşăD
- 1Ștefan RădulescuG
- 29Kilian LudewigD
- 11Ioan ToleaM
- 21David ParaschivM
- 1Cosmin Dur-BozoancăG
- 5Habib SyllaD
- 3Giannis ChristopoulosD
- 6Paul IacobD
- 2Milen ZhelevD
- 17Andrei CiobanuM
- 8João LameiraM
- 27Pedro NunoM
- 24Denis BordunF
- 9Patrick FernandesF
- 10AndrézinhoF
- 7João PaulinoF
- 15Cristian NeicuF
- 39Teodor LunguM
- 77Alexandru BălănicăF
- 13Mario ContraG
- 22Gabriel UrsuG
- 16Dan NeicuD
- 20Robert OlteanuM
- 30Matei FrunzăM
Form going into Petrolul Ploiesti vs Oțelul
Petrolul Ploiesti
- L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Arges Pitesti24 July 2026
- W1-0Dinamo Bucuresti19 July 2026
Oțelul
- D1-1Dinamo Bucuresti31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Uta Arad24 July 2026
- W2-1CFR 1907 Cluj18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | Oțelul | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Oțelul
- 9 August 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 OțelulLiga I
- 18 May 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 1–5 OțelulLiga I
- 8 November 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–0 OțelulLiga I
- 13 July 2025Oțelul 0–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 12 May 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 1–3 OțelulLiga I
- 18 January 2025Oțelul 0–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Petrolul Ploiesti and Oțelul
Petrolul Ploiesti
- B. Malula3 goals
- D. Nlundulu3 goals
Oțelul
- Patrick4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.