7 August 2026, 19:15 UTC

Estoril vs Famalicao Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Estoril 1-1 Famalicao.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Estoril, 27% draw, 38% Famalicao — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Famalicao at 38% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estoril4%Draw92%Famalicao4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽G. Koutsiasassist: Gil Dias
Ricard Sánchez
53'
🔁A. Lacximicantout: F. Garcia
66'
🔁R. Sanchezout: P. Carvalho
66'
66'
🔁P. Santosout: T. Szucs
⚽Y. Begraouiassist: P. Carvalho
72'
76'
Rodrigo Pinheiro
77'
🔁Gil Diasout: O. Aranda
77'
🔁Sorrisoout: R. Beney
🔁Xekaout: Jandro
83'
83'
🔁G. Koutsiasout: U. Abubakar
🔁A. Tsounguiout: T. Brito
87'
90+3'
Romeo Beney

Match stats — Estoril vs Famalicao

50%Possession50%
14Shots6
3On target2
7Corners6
0.99xG1.43

Goals against chances

Estoril1 from 0.99 xGabout what the chances were worth
Famalicao1 from 1.43 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estoril 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. RoblesG
  • 2R. SanchezD
  • 4FerroD
  • 15I. SierraD
  • 3F. MedranoD
  • 8XekaM
  • 5A. TsounguiM
  • 99R. GuitaneM
  • 12J. CarvalhoM
  • 7A. LacximicantM
  • 14Y. BegraouiF
Substitutes
  • 16M. TurkG
  • 31D. DiasG
  • 18G. CostaD
  • 6JandroM
  • 90T. BritoM
  • 55T. ParenteD
  • 80L. GomesM
  • 98F. GarciaF
  • 22P. CarvalhoD
Coach: Vasco Matos
Famalicao 4-2-3-1
  • 25L. CarevicG
  • 17R. PinheiroD
  • 3L. RealpeD
  • 4F. van BreemenD
  • 28Pedro BondoD
  • 6T. Van de LooiM
  • 14M. De AmorimM
  • 23Gil DiasM
  • 10P. SantosM
  • 7SorrisoM
  • 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ZlobinG
  • 19P. MoreiraM
  • 11O. ArandaF
  • 8M. PenaM
  • 91R. AlmeidaF
  • 2GarciaD
  • 5L. MeyerD
  • 21T. Szucs
  • 30V. Serafimovic
Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Estoril602428-62
13Famalicao604257-24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estoril vs Famalicao

  • 7 August 2026Estoril 1–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 26 April 2026Estoril 0–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 14 December 2025Famalicao 4–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • 22 November 2025Estoril 1–2 FamalicaoTaça de Portugal
  • 12 April 2025Famalicao 3–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • 1 December 2024Estoril 2–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Estoril and Famalicao

Estoril

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Famalicao

  • G. Koutsias3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.