Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions

Friday 20 November — 3 matches

• 13:30 UTC CS Hammam-Lif vs ES Metlaoui — model 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.13 · 3.57 · 4.00. Evenly matched
• 13:30 UTC ES Hammam-Sousse vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — model 23% / 28% / 49%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.35 · 3.57 · 2.04. One-sided: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
• 13:30 UTC Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa — model 36% / 27% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 3.70 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 21 November — 3 matches

• 13:30 UTC CS Sfaxien vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — model 61% / 23% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.35 · 6.25. One-sided: CS Sfaxien
• 13:30 UTC Stade Tunisien vs CA Bizertin — model 57% / 23% / 20%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.75 · 4.35 · 5.00. Edge: Stade Tunisien
• 13:30 UTC US Monastirienne vs ES Sahel — model 55% / 24% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.82 · 4.17 · 4.76. Edge: US Monastirienne

Sunday 22 November — 2 matches

• 13:30 UTC Club Africain vs ES Tunis — model 44% / 26% / 30%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 3.85 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 13:30 UTC ES Zarzis vs US Ben Guerdane — model 37% / 27% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.70 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 28 November — 8 matches

• 16:30 UTC ES Tunis vs ES Hammam-Sousse — model 77% / 15% / 8%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.30 · 6.67 · 12.50. One-sided: ES Tunis
• 16:30 UTC CA Bizertin vs ES Zarzis — model 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.85 · 3.23. Evenly matched
• 16:30 UTC ES Metlaoui vs US Ben Guerdane — model 30% / 27% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 3.70 · 2.33. Edge: US Ben Guerdane
• 16:30 UTC ES Sahel vs Club Africain — model 30% / 25% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 4.00 · 2.22. Edge: Club Africain
• 16:30 UTC CS Hammam-Lif vs Olympique Béja — model 49% / 27% / 24%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.04 · 3.70 · 4.17. Evenly matched
• 16:30 UTC AS Marsa vs CS Sfaxien — model 29% / 28% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.57 · 2.33. Edge: CS Sfaxien
• 16:30 UTC Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Stade Tunisien — model 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.33 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 16:30 UTC Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs US Monastirienne — model 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.45 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Last round: the model's hits and misses

7–8 November: the model called the result of 1 of 4 matches. Across all 25 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 48% of results.

• ES Tunis 1–0 US Monastirienne — the model said 51% / 25% / 24%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• ES Sahel 1–1 CS Sfaxien — the model said 26% / 26% / 48%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
• Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 0–0 Club Africain — the model said 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• ES Metlaoui 2–1 ES Zarzis — the model said 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result missed.

Ligue 1 (Tunisia) so far

Top of the table

• 1. US Ben Guerdane — 17 pts from 7 (5W 2D 0L, goals 12–6)
• 2. ES Tunis — 16 pts from 7 (5W 1D 1L, goals 11–7)
• 3. Stade Tunisien — 13 pts from 7 (4W 1D 2L, goals 10–7)
• 4. Club Africain — 13 pts from 7 (4W 1D 2L, goals 8–6)
• 5. US Monastirienne — 12 pts from 7 (3W 3D 1L, goals 8–6)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 64 matches left: ES Tunis 41.1%, US Ben Guerdane 26.1%, Club Africain 10.8%.

Leading scorers: Mohamed Bouzaabya (ES Metlaoui) 1 goal.