Pumas UNAM vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Pumas UNAM 3-1 Leon.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Pumas UNAM, 30% draw, 30% Leon — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pumas UNAM at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pumas UNAM vs Leon
Line-ups
- 1K. NavasG
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5Rubén DuarteD
- 12C. CalderónD
- 7R. LópezM
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 14L. HerreraM
- 21U. AntunaM
- 31R. MoralesM
- 23JuninhoF
- 34Á. AzuajeD
- 202Julio Cesar Dominguez CastillejosD
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 35P. LaraG
- 15I. LunaM
- 30Santiago López LópezF
- 22A. MedinaF
- 13P. MonroyD
- 19J. RivasD
- 23Ó. GarcíaG
- 7I. MorenoD
- 14J. RomañaD
- 25P. BellónD
- 185C. MoraD
- 29J. RodríguezM
- 16J. CortizoM
- 8J. DomínguezM
- 13D. ArcilaM
- 11I. DíazM
- 19J. AlvaradoF
- 27D. CambindoF
- 4B. ColulaD
- 20R. EcheverríaD
- 15S. FierroM
- 12J. GonzálezG
- 203J. LaraM
- 26S. ReyesM
- 5S. VegasD
- 33A. VillegasD
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Leon
Pumas UNAM
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
- D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
- W5-1away to FC Juarez1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Toluca22 July 2026
Leon
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
- W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
What these results say
- Pumas UNAM conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leon had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Leon
- 18 January 2026Pumas UNAM 1–1 LeonLiga MX
- 26 October 2025Leon 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 31 March 2025Leon 1–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 7 July 2024Pumas UNAM 4–1 LeonLiga MX
- 15 April 2024Pumas UNAM 1–0 LeonLiga MX
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Leon
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pumas UNAM beat Leon 3–1. The model had made a win for Pumas UNAM its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnio 45' for Pumas UNAM, Jose Alvarado 53' for Leon, Robert Morales 70' for Pumas UNAM, Pedro Vite 87' for Pumas UNAM.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.