Necaxa vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Necaxa 0-1 Puebla.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Necaxa, 29% draw, 27% Puebla — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Necaxa at 44% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Necaxa vs Puebla
Necaxa
- D1-1away to Tigres UANL6 September 2026
- L1-3Cruz Azul29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026
- L1-2Leon18 August 2026
Puebla
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
- W3-2away to CF Pachuca18 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Puebla | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Puebla
- 14 March 2026Puebla 0–0 NecaxaLiga MX
- 20 September 2025Necaxa 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 19 April 2025Puebla 0–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 13 July 2024Necaxa 4–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 20 January 2024Puebla 1–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 8 October 2023Necaxa 1–2 PueblaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Necaxa and Puebla
Necaxa
- J. Carranza4 goals1 assists
Puebla
- E. Mustre3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.