Toluca vs Atlas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Toluca 5-2 Atlas.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Toluca, 29% draw, 25% Atlas — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toluca at 46% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Toluca vs Atlas
Toluca
- W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
Atlas
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 9 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toluca vs Atlas
- 15 March 2026Toluca 1–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 1 November 2025Atlas 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 13 April 2025Atlas 2–3 TolucaLiga MX
- 28 September 2024Toluca 4–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 7 April 2024Toluca 4–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 26 August 2023Atlas 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Toluca and Atlas
Toluca
- F. Viñas3 goals
Atlas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.