11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result

Ticha, Varna
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Cherno More Varna 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Cherno More Varna, 26% draw, 42% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lokomotiv Sofia at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cherno More Varna6%Draw90%Lokomotiv Sofia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽celso sidneyassist: georgi lazarov
6'
15'
Angel Lyaskov
34'
Krasimir Stanoev
⚽Idris·Bounaasassist: Mohamed Achi Bouakline
37'
45+3'
Bozhidar Katsarov
46'
🔁Ivan Yordanovout: Ryan Bidounga
46'
🔁Georgi Minchevout: Dimitar Kostadinov
46'
🔁Reyan Daskalovout: Antonio Miguel Tavares Eiro de Carvalho
Christian Tomov
57'
🔁celso sidneyout: Petar Dimitrov Andreev
58'
🔁Idris·Bounaasout: Ivan·Tasev
58'
61'
🔁caruzo caueout: Ante Aralica
Ventsislav Kerchev
62'
64'
⚽Ante Aralicaassist: Spas Delev
Asen Donchev
69'
77'
⚽Dimitar Kostadinovassist: Krasimir Stanoev
78'
🔁Kaloyan Kostovout: nikola neychev
🔁Petar Dimitrov Andreevout: Miguel barandas
79'
🔁Mohamed Achi Bouaklineout: Padilla Jorge
79'
🔁Ventsislav Kerchevout: bandaro joao
86'
87'
Ante Aralica
georgi lazarov
90+4'

Match stats — Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

58%Possession42%
12Shots8
4On target3
9Corners5

Line-ups

Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 81K. TomovG
  • 37V. KerchevD
  • 5L. SquadroneD
  • 3Z. AtanasovD
  • 8A. DonchevF
  • 24David TelesM
  • 99I. BounaasM
  • 10Celso SidneyF
  • 71V. PanayotovM
  • 11M. AchiM
  • 19G. LazarovF
Substitutes
  • 18P. AndreevM
  • 50E. TombakD
  • 14A. TodorovD
  • 17I. TasevF
  • 9J. PadillaF
  • 13E. NyagolovD
  • 22N. KostadinovM
  • 26João BandaróD
  • 31D. HristovG
Coach: Ilian Iliev
Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. VelichkovG
  • 22R. DaskalovD
  • 3K. KostovD
  • 44B. KatsarovM
  • 14A. LyaskovD
  • 5E. DostM
  • 31K. StanoevM
  • 77Caue CaruzoF
  • 8I. YordanovM
  • 7S. DelevF
  • 9G. MinchevF
Substitutes
  • 11A. TaouiF
  • 29A. AralicaF
  • 91R. BidoungaD
  • 6EirôD
  • 20D. KostadinovM
  • 24A. LyubenovG
  • 16M. MedfaiM
  • 26K. MiloshevM
  • 42N. NeychevM
Coach: L. Penev

Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Cherno More Varna

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
  • L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
  • W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
  • L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026
  • L2-3Ludogorets9 August 2026

Lokomotiv Sofia

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Ludogorets6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
  • L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026

What these results say

  • Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cherno More Varna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cherno More Varna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Cherno More Varna143471422-813
14Lokomotiv Sofia141671526-119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

  • 22 November 2025Cherno More Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 18 July 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 3 December 2024Cherno More Varna 4–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 4 August 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 4 April 2024Cherno More Varna 3–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League

Leading scorers: Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia

Cherno More Varna

No player in First League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Lokomotiv Sofia

GoalsAssists

  • S. Delev11
  • D. Kostadinov10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv Sofia at 42% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: celso sidney 6' for Cherno More Varna, Idris·Bounaas 37' for Cherno More Varna, Ante Aralica 64' for Lokomotiv Sofia, Dimitar Kostadinov 77' for Lokomotiv Sofia. Sent off: Bozhidar Katsarov (Lokomotiv Sofia) 45+3'.

How the call on Cherno More Varna v Lokomotiv Sofia has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 32% / 26% / 42%: the biggest move is Lokomotiv Sofia's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Cherno More Varna win32%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Lokomotiv Sofia win42%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.