Rosenborg
vs
Molde
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Rosenborg 2–1 Molde
The model makes it 55% Rosenborg, 21% draw, 24% Molde — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Rosenborg 2.60, Molde 1.56.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Rosenborg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Rosenborg's rating is built from 56 Eliteserien matches and Molde's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.
Key facts
- Rosenborg are 3rd on 46 points from 26 games; Molde are 5th on 44 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
- Rosenborg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Start.
- Molde have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-5 draw away to Sandefjord.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 July 2026, ended Rosenborg 2–1 Molde.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rosenborg vs Molde
Has the model earned this number?
Rosenborg at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rosenborg vs Molde
Rosenborg
Eliteserien
- W4-1Start7 November 2026
- W3-0away to Fredrikstad31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Ham-Kam24 October 2026
- W3-0away to Sarpsborg 08 FF18 October 2026
- D1-1Sandefjord10 October 2026
Molde
Eliteserien
- D5-5away to Sandefjord8 November 2026
- L2-3away to Brann1 November 2026
- W5-1Fredrikstad25 October 2026
- W6-1Start18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Lillestrom11 October 2026
What these results say
- Rosenborg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rosenborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rosenborg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Molde scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Molde conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Molde had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rosenborg | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 53 | 32 | +21 | 46 |
| 5 | Molde | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 64 | 44 | +20 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rosenborg vs Molde
- 5 July 2026Rosenborg 2–1 MoldeFriendlies Clubs
- 14 March 2026Molde 2–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 1 November 2025Molde 4–2 RosenborgEliteserien
- 27 April 2025Rosenborg 0–0 MoldeEliteserien
- 1 September 2024Rosenborg 2–1 MoldeEliteserien
- 11 May 2024Molde 2–2 RosenborgEliteserien
Leading scorers: Rosenborg and Molde
Rosenborg
GoalsAssists
- Amin Chiakha184
Molde
GoalsAssists
- K. Lonebu152
- E. Breivik1010
- E. Hestad82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosenborg the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Rosenborg against 1.56 for Molde. Rosenborg's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/1.46 for Molde.
How the model reaches 55% for Rosenborg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Rosenborg to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Rosenborg's ratings add 3 points and Molde's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Rosenborg's ratings49%+3
- Molde's ratings55%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rosenborg at home · Molde away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Rosenborg 26, Molde 26.
Rosenborg score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Molde have let in 6 there.
Molde score most often in the 46–60 minute window (14 goals); Rosenborg have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Rosenborg
- at Valerenga5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 46%
- vs KFUM Oslo13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 65%
Molde
- vs Viking4 Dec · Eliteserienwin 32%
- at Fredrikstad13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.