Sandefjord
vs
Tromso
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Sandefjord 2–1 Tromso
The model makes it 42% Sandefjord, 27% draw, 31% Tromso — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.54, Tromso 1.25.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sandefjord's rating is built from 56 Eliteserien matches and Tromso's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.
Key facts
- Sandefjord are 13th on 28 points from 26 games; Tromso are 6th on 40 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
- Sandefjord have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-5 draw at home to Molde.
- Tromso have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Bodo/Glimt.
- Last 6 meetings: Tromso 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Tromso 3–1 Sandefjord.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sandefjord vs Tromso
Has the model earned this number?
Sandefjord at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sandefjord vs Tromso
Sandefjord
Eliteserien
- D5-5Molde8 November 2026
- W4-3away to Aalesund31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Start25 October 2026
- L0-2Lillestrom18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rosenborg10 October 2026
Tromso
Eliteserien
- L0-2Bodo/Glimt8 November 2026
- L0-4away to Valerenga1 November 2026
- L1-3away to Viking25 October 2026
- D1-1KFUM Oslo18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad11 October 2026
What these results say
- Sandefjord conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sandefjord failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tromso did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tromso conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Sandefjord | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 28 |
| 6 | Tromso | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | +3 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sandefjord vs Tromso
- 26 April 2026Tromso 3–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 9 November 2025Sandefjord 1–0 TromsoEliteserien
- 4 May 2025Tromso 0–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 22 September 2024Tromso 3–0 SandefjordEliteserien
- 3 July 2024Sandefjord 1–2 TromsoEliteserien
- 20 August 2023Tromso 1–0 SandefjordEliteserien
Leading scorers: Sandefjord and Tromso
Sandefjord
GoalsAssists
- E. Patoulidis83
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tromso (6th, with Sandefjord 13th), while our numbers lean to Sandefjord. Sandefjord rate 0.67 in attack and 1.22 in defence, Tromso 0.71 and 1.27 (lower is better in defence), so Sandefjord have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 12-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sandefjord the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sandefjord against 1.25 for Tromso. Sandefjord's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.27 for Tromso.
How the model reaches 42% for Sandefjord to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sandefjord to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Sandefjord's ratings change nothing and Tromso's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Sandefjord's ratings42%±0
- Tromso's ratings42%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sandefjord at home · Tromso away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Sandefjord 26, Tromso 26.
Tromso score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Sandefjord have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Sandefjord
- at Ham-Kam6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 36%
- vs Valerenga13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 42%
Tromso
- vs Start6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 58%
- at Lillestrom13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.