Sabah FA
vs
Araz
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Sabah FA 3–0 Araz
The model makes it 82% Sabah FA, 12% draw, 6% Araz — fair odds of 1.22, 8.33 and 16.67.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Sabah FA 3.59, Araz 0.76.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Sabah FA are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sabah FA's rating is built from 43 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Araz's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sabah FA are 3rd on 21 points from 10 games; Araz are bottom on 4 points from 11 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Sabah FA are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Şamaxı FK.
- Araz have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Safa Baku.
- Last 6 meetings: Sabah FA 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended Araz 0–1 Sabah FA.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sabah FA vs Araz
Has the model earned this number?
Sabah FA at 82%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sabah FA vs Araz
Sabah FA
Premyer Liqa
- D2-2Şamaxı FK8 November 2026
- L2-3away to Turan30 October 2026
- D0-0Qarabag25 October 2026
- W4-0away to Qabala17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Neftchi Baku9 October 2026
Araz
Premyer Liqa
- D2-2away to Safa Baku7 November 2026
- D2-2Zira31 October 2026
- L1-2Qabala23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sumqayıt16 October 2026
- L0-2Kapaz9 October 2026
What these results say
- Sabah FA failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Araz did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Araz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Araz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sabah FA | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 21 |
| 12 | Araz | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sabah FA
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 55% today
Araz
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 66% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sabah FA vs Araz
- 31 August 2026Araz 0–1 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 7 April 2026Araz 2–4 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 8 February 2026Sabah FA 4–1 ArazPremyer Liqa
- 25 October 2025Araz 2–2 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 3 May 2025Araz 1–1 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 4 March 2025Sabah FA 2–2 ArazPremyer Liqa
Leading scorers: Sabah FA and Araz
Sabah FA
GoalsAssists
- U. Rahmonaliyev10
Araz
No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sabah FA a 55% chance of the title and Araz 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabah FA the highest probability at 82%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.59 expected goals for Sabah FA against 0.76 for Araz. Sabah FA's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.23 for Araz.
How the model reaches 82% for Sabah FA to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sabah FA to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Sabah FA's ratings add 18 points and Araz's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 82%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Sabah FA's ratings64%+18
- Araz's ratings82%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sabah FA at home · Araz away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Sabah FA 10, Araz 11.
Araz score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Sabah FA have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sabah FA
- at Zira5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 50%
- at Villarreal8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 18%
- vs Safa Baku13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 81%
Araz
- vs Qarabag5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- at Turan13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 15%
- vs Şamaxı FK19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 36%
- at Kapaz23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.