Imisli FK
vs
Safa Baku
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Imisli FK 1–0 Safa Baku
The model makes it 44% Imisli FK, 30% draw, 26% Safa Baku — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Imisli FK 1.33, Safa Baku 0.88.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Imisli FK's rating is built from 43 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Safa Baku's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Imisli FK are 8th on 11 points from 11 games; Safa Baku are 11th on 5 points from 11 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Imisli FK have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Sumqayıt.
- Safa Baku have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Araz.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Imisli FK vs Safa Baku
Has the model earned this number?
Imisli FK at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Imisli FK vs Safa Baku
Imisli FK
Premyer Liqa
- D0-0Sumqayıt8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Kapaz1 November 2026
- W2-1Şamaxı FK25 October 2026
- W1-0Turan18 October 2026
- L0-2Qarabag11 October 2026
Safa Baku
Premyer Liqa
- D2-2Araz7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Sumqayıt2 November 2026
- L1-2Kapaz24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Şamaxı FK16 October 2026
- L0-1Turan11 October 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Imisli FK had two goals or fewer.
- Safa Baku did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Imisli FK | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Imisli FK
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 17% today
Safa Baku
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 64% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Safa Baku
- 29 August 2026Safa Baku 0–1 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Imisli FK the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Imisli FK against 0.88 for Safa Baku. Imisli FK's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2 for Safa Baku.
How the model reaches 44% for Imisli FK to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Imisli FK to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Imisli FK's ratings add 1 point and Safa Baku's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- Imisli FK's ratings42%+1
- Safa Baku's ratings44%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Imisli FK at home · Safa Baku away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Imisli FK 11, Safa Baku 11.
Imisli FK score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Safa Baku have let in 2 there.
Safa Baku score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Imisli FK have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Imisli FK
- vs Qabala5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 42%
- at Neftchi Baku13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 11%
- vs Sabah FA19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 16%
- at Qarabag23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 10%
Safa Baku
- vs Neftchi Baku5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- at Sabah FA13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 6%
- vs Qarabag19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 16%
- at Turan23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 14%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.