Azerbaijan Premier League predictions

Friday 20 November — 2 matches

• 10:30 UTC Imisli FK vs Zira — model 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.33 · 2.56. Edge: Zira
• 15:00 UTC Sumqayıt vs Sabah FA — model 20% / 23% / 57%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.00 · 4.35 · 1.75. One-sided: Sabah FA

Saturday 21 November — 2 matches

• 10:30 UTC Şamaxı FK vs Turan — model 34% / 30% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.33 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
• 13:00 UTC Safa Baku vs Qabala — model 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.45 · 3.33. Evenly matched

Sunday 22 November — 2 matches

• 10:30 UTC Araz vs Neftchi Baku — model 20% / 21% / 59%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 5.00 · 4.76 · 1.69. One-sided: Neftchi Baku
• 13:00 UTC Kapaz vs Qarabag — model 21% / 28% / 51%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.76 · 3.57 · 1.96. One-sided: Qarabag

Saturday 28 November — 6 matches

• 16:00 UTC Qarabag vs Sumqayıt — model 69% / 19% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.45 · 5.26 · 8.33. One-sided: Qarabag
• 16:00 UTC Şamaxı FK vs Qabala — model 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.82 · 4.00 · 5.00. Edge: Şamaxı FK
• 16:00 UTC Neftchi Baku vs Zira — model 60% / 22% / 18%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.67 · 4.55 · 5.56. Edge: Neftchi Baku
• 16:00 UTC Turan vs Kapaz — model 53% / 29% / 18%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 3.45 · 5.56. Edge: Turan
• 16:00 UTC Imisli FK vs Safa Baku — model 44% / 30% / 26%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.27 · 3.33 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 16:00 UTC Sabah FA vs Araz — model 82% / 12% / 6%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.22 · 8.33 · 16.67. One-sided: Sabah FA

Last round: the model's hits and misses

6–8 November: the model called the result of 2 of 6 matches. Across all 30 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 37% of results.

• Qarabag 0–1 Turan — the model said 55% / 27% / 18%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Neftchi Baku 1–0 Kapaz — the model said 67% / 20% / 13%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Safa Baku 2–2 Araz — the model said 41% / 27% / 32%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Zira 2–1 Qabala — the model said 58% / 25% / 17%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Imisli FK 0–0 Sumqayıt — the model said 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Sabah FA 2–2 Şamaxı FK — the model said 73% / 17% / 10%, most likely 2-0: result missed.

Azerbaijan Premier League so far

Top of the table

• 1. Neftchi Baku — 24 pts from 11 (7W 3D 1L, goals 26–11)
• 2. Turan — 21 pts from 11 (6W 3D 2L, goals 12–8)
• 3. Sabah FA — 21 pts from 10 (6W 3D 1L, goals 22–6)
• 4. Qarabag — 19 pts from 10 (5W 4D 1L, goals 14–8)
• 5. Zira — 19 pts from 11 (5W 4D 2L, goals 16–15)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 134 matches left: Sabah FA 55%, Neftchi Baku 23.9%, Qarabag 19.2%.

Leading scorers: U. Rahmonaliyev (Sabah FA) 1 goal.