30 August 2026, 14:30 UTC

IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS Allsvenskan prediction & result

Gamla Ullevi
Full time1 – 0

Final score: IFK Goteborg 1-0 Orgryte IS.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% IFK Goteborg, 26% draw, 29% Orgryte IS — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts IFK Goteborg at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IFK Goteborg96%Draw4%Orgryte IS0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁A. Erlingmarkout: J. Bager
24'
Felix Eriksson
37'
⚽H. Hermannssonassist: T. Heintz
61'
73'
🔁D. Paulsonout: M. Parker
73'
🔁W. Hofvanderout: J. Tibbling
81'
🔁J. Hammarout: A. Andreasson
🔁S. Clemmensenout: M. Fenger
83'
Adam Bergmark Wiberg
87'

Match stats — IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS

52%Possession48%
20Shots13
5On target5
11Corners5
2.01xG0.98

Goals against chances

IFK Goteborg1 from 2.01 xGless than the chances were worth
Orgryte IS0 from 0.98 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

IFK Goteborg 4-4-2
  • 12V. AnderssonG
  • 18F. ErikssonD
  • 3A. ErlingmarkD
  • 6H. HermannssonD
  • 22N. TolfD
  • 29A. Bergmark-WibergM
  • 24O. ManssonM
  • 15D. KruseM
  • 14T. HeintzM
  • 7S. ClemmensenF
  • 8S. LarssonF
Substitutes
  • 25E. BishesariG
  • 5J. BagerD
  • 28I. SeiduD
  • 21L. RadakovicM
  • 16F. OttossonM
  • 26E. FasthM
  • 9M. FengerF
  • 27A. BorenF
  • 30T. CoimbraF
Coach: Joachim Bjorklund
Orgryte IS 3-4-3
  • 44H. GustafssonG
  • 25J. HammarD
  • 6M. DyrestamD
  • 5C. StyffeD
  • 18A. AnderssonM
  • 23O. Parker-PriceM
  • 8B. LaturnusM
  • 14D. PaulsonM
  • 17W. HofvanderF
  • 11N. ChristofferssonF
  • 22T. SanaF
Substitutes
  • 34A. RahmG
  • 3J. AzulayD
  • 33S. LagerlundD
  • 2M. ParkerD
  • 21W. KenndalM
  • 19A. AndreassonD
  • 7C. VindehallM
  • 15J. TibblingF
  • 29M. EbietomereD
Coach: Andreas Holmberg

Form going into IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS

IFK Goteborg

  • D1-1IF Elfsborg23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Degerfors IF16 August 2026

Orgryte IS

  • D1-1Halmstad22 August 2026
  • L1-3away to IF Brommapojkarna16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9IFK Goteborg218583041-1129
15Orgryte IS2136122447-2315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS

  • 30 August 2026IFK Goteborg 1–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
  • 19 May 2026Orgryte IS 2–3 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS

IFK Goteborg

  • S. Larsson7 goals2 assists
  • T. Heintz6 goals5 assists

Orgryte IS

  • N. Christoffersson8 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.