9 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result

Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou
Full time3 – 0

Final score: FK Jablonec 3-0 Baník Ostrava.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% FK Jablonec, 29% draw, 27% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Jablonec at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Jablonec99%Draw1%Baník Ostrava0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Jiri Micek
Saidou Alioum Moubarak
33'
38'
•Matej Chalus
🔁Klemen Mihelakout: Jan Hanus
41'
⚽Filip Novákassist: Richard Sedláček
44'
47'
•Matej Chalus
50'
Matej Chalus
51'
Martin Jedlička
⚽Antonín Růsekassist: Matej Polidar
55'
56'
🔁Daniel Holzerout: Raymond Roan Nogha
62'
🔁Dantaye·Gilbertout: Matus Kmet
62'
🔁Vaclav Jureckaout: Filip Šancl
62'
🔁Filip Kubalaout: Vit Skrkon
⚽Matej Polidarassist: Dominik Holly
70'
72'
🔁Jiri Micekout: Maksym·Diachuk
•Matej Polidar
73'
🔁Dominik Hollyout: Lamin Jawo
73'
🔁Saidou Alioum Moubarakout: Hugo Ahl
73'
•Matej Polidar
75'
🔁Filip Novákout: Eduard Sobol
81'
🔁Richard Sedláčekout: Filip Zorvan
81'

Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava

59%Possession41%
23Shots9
7On target2
9Corners5

Line-ups

FK Jablonec 3-4-2-1
  • 99K. MihelakG
  • 15D. PavlovićD
  • 4N. TekijaškiD
  • 57F. NovákD
  • 7V. TchanturishviliM
  • 25S. NebylaM
  • 13R. SedláčekM
  • 21M. PolidarM
  • 17S. AlioumM
  • 9A. RůsekM
  • 24D. HollýF
Substitutes
  • 18M. CedidlaD
  • 19J. ChramostaF
  • 1J. HanušG
  • 44L. JawoF
  • 16H. AhlM
  • 6N. OkekeM
  • 20J. SlámaD
  • 23E. SobolD
  • 14D. SoučekD
Coach: L. Kozel
Baník Ostrava 3-4-2-1
  • 23M. JedličkaG
  • 44Y. SkybaD
  • 37M. ChalušD
  • 42J. MíčekD
  • 34A. BeweneM
  • 5J. BoulaM
  • 8A. TraoréM
  • 95D. HolzerM
  • 7D. GilbertM
  • 15V. JurečkaM
  • 28F. KubalaF
Substitutes
  • 22V. SkrkonF
  • 19F. ŠanclM
  • 83R. NoghaM
  • 55Artúr MusákM
  • 81M. KmeťD
  • 17M. FrydrychD
  • 16M. DyachukD
  • 1V. BudinskýG
Coach: R. Skuhravý

Form going into FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava

FK Jablonec

  • L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Teplice30 August 2026

Baník Ostrava

  • L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
  • W1-0Sigma Olomouc29 August 2026
  • W1-0Artis16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FK Jablonec8413108+213
12Baník Ostrava8305515-109

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava

  • 9 September 2026FK Jablonec 3–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 11 April 2026FK Jablonec 4–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 8 November 2025Baník Ostrava 0–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 27 April 2025Baník Ostrava 1–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 9 April 2025FK Jablonec 0–1 Baník OstravaCup
  • 23 November 2024FK Jablonec 3–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga

Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava

FK Jablonec

  • M. Cedidla3 goals

Baník Ostrava

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.