FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: FK Jablonec 3-0 Baník Ostrava.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% FK Jablonec, 29% draw, 27% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FK Jablonec at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava
Line-ups
- 99K. MihelakG
- 15D. PavlovićD
- 4N. TekijaškiD
- 57F. NovákD
- 7V. TchanturishviliM
- 25S. NebylaM
- 13R. SedláčekM
- 21M. PolidarM
- 17S. AlioumM
- 9A. RůsekM
- 24D. HollýF
- 18M. CedidlaD
- 19J. ChramostaF
- 1J. HanušG
- 44L. JawoF
- 16H. AhlM
- 6N. OkekeM
- 20J. SlámaD
- 23E. SobolD
- 14D. SoučekD
- 23M. JedličkaG
- 44Y. SkybaD
- 37M. ChalušD
- 42J. MíčekD
- 34A. BeweneM
- 5J. BoulaM
- 8A. TraoréM
- 95D. HolzerM
- 7D. GilbertM
- 15V. JurečkaM
- 28F. KubalaF
- 22V. SkrkonF
- 19F. ŠanclM
- 83R. NoghaM
- 55Artúr MusákM
- 81M. KmeťD
- 17M. FrydrychD
- 16M. DyachukD
- 1V. BudinskýG
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava
FK Jablonec
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
- L0-2away to Teplice30 August 2026
- W1-0Rangers27 August 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers20 August 2026
Baník Ostrava
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
- W1-0Sigma Olomouc29 August 2026
- W1-0Artis16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové9 August 2026
- L0-4Slavia Praha1 August 2026
What these results say
- FK Jablonec failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FK Jablonec had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FK Jablonec | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 21 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava
- 11 April 2026FK Jablonec 4–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 8 November 2025Baník Ostrava 0–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 27 April 2025Baník Ostrava 1–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
- 9 April 2025FK Jablonec 0–1 Baník OstravaCup
- 23 November 2024FK Jablonec 3–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
The result against the call
FK Jablonec beat Baník Ostrava 3–0. The model had made a win for FK Jablonec its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Filip Novák 44' for FK Jablonec, Antonín Růsek 55' for FK Jablonec, Matej Polidar 70' for FK Jablonec. Sent off: Matej Chalus (Baník Ostrava) 50'.
How the call on FK Jablonec v Baník Ostrava has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is FK Jablonec's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- FK Jablonec win44%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Baník Ostrava win27%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.