Finland vs Belarus UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Finland 0-0 Belarus.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Finland, 29% draw, 40% Belarus — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Belarus at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Finland vs Belarus
Line-ups
- 1L. HrádeckýG
- 3A. StåhlD
- 4T. MiettinenD
- 21V. KoskiD
- 13J. LähteenmäkiD
- 14K. KairinenM
- 11A. MarhievM
- 6G. KamaraM
- 10L. WaltaF
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 18T. KeskinenF
- 22D. HåkansM
- 23L. BergströmG
- 19B. KällmanF
- 8R. LodM
- 17R. MahutaD
- 5S. MiettinenD
- 2M. PeltolaD
- 12V. SinisaloG
- 16A. SuhonenM
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 5V. KalininD
- 20Z. VolkovD
- 13K. GomanovD
- 2K. PecheninD
- 19A. LukashovM
- 8A. SelyavaM
- 9M. EbongM
- 7A. ShumanskiyM
- 11G. BarkovskiyF
- 17V. LisakovichF
- 4V. BocherovM
- 3A. SvirepaM
- 18T. SimanenkaF
- 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
- 15E. ParkhomenkoD
- 23T. MelnichenkoF
- 12A. KudravetsG
- 16A. KovalevM
- 10V. GromykoM
Form going into Finland vs Belarus
Finland
UEFA Nations League
- W7-0away to San Marino26 September 2026
Belarus
UEFA Nations League
- L0-2away to Albania26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Finland | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | Belarus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Finland vs Belarus
- 9 June 2018Finland 2–0 BelarusFriendlies
Leading scorers: Finland and Belarus
Finland
GoalsAssists
- L. Walta41
Belarus
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Finland and Belarus drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Belarus at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.