20 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden
Full time0 – 2

Final score: St. Truiden 0-2 KVC Westerlo.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% St. Truiden, 26% draw, 30% KVC Westerlo — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Truiden at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St. Truiden0%Draw1%KVC Westerlo99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

36'
⚽Norman Bassetteassist: Cisse Sandra
46'
⚽Cisse Sandraassist: Isa Sakamoto
🔁Ryotaro Arakiout: Nathanael Mbuku
60'
71'
🔁Shunsuke Saitoout: Nikola Storm
71'
🔁Isa Sakamotoout: Pape Daouda Diong
73'
Norman Bassette
Visar Musliu
73'
🔁Kaito Matsuzawaout: Oumar Diouf
75'
🔁Abdoulaye Sissakoout: Nelson Ishiwatari
75'
🔁Taiga Hataout: Joedrick Pupe
75'
78'
🔁Norman Bassetteout: David Amegnaglo
78'
🔁Cameron Congreveout: Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni

Match stats — St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo

52%Possession48%
17Shots19
3On target8
6Corners3

Line-ups

St. Truiden 4-2-3-1
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 60R. VanwesemaelD
  • 5S. TaniguchiD
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 3T. HataD
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 38K. MatsuzawaM
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 9S. BaždarF
Substitutes
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 11N. MbukuF
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 99S. ShinkawaM
  • 4K. TakaiD
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 33A. DirikenM
  • 77O. DioufF
  • 22W. JanssensD
Coach: F. De Meyer
KVC Westerlo 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. JungdalG
  • 2L. FløD
  • 5S. KimuraD
  • 4A. LapageD
  • 28D. OuregaD
  • 45I. FofanaM
  • 14C. SandraM
  • 20C. CongreveM
  • 13I. SakamotoM
  • 7S. SaitoM
  • 9N. BassetteF
Substitutes
  • 17D. AmegnagloF
  • 40B. BaloghD
  • 11N. Bohamdi-KamoniF
  • 26D. DionguM
  • 1B. LathouwersG
  • 23L. Mbamba-MuandaD
  • 10N. StormF
  • 8S. SydorchukM
  • 39T. Van den KeybusM
Coach: I. Charaï

Form going into St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo

St. Truiden

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
  • W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
  • L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Antwerp30 August 2026
  • L2-4away to Omonia Nicosia27 August 2026

KVC Westerlo

All competitions we cover

  • W4-2Standard Liege12 September 2026
  • W4-0away to KV Mechelen5 September 2026
  • D2-2Zulte Waregem30 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Lommel United23 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Genk15 August 2026

What these results say

  • St. Truiden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for St. Truiden had three goals or more.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for KVC Westerlo had three goals or more.
  • KVC Westerlo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • KVC Westerlo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12St. Truiden113262222011
9KVC Westerlo114252630-414

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs KVC Westerlo

  • 6 February 2026KVC Westerlo 0–4 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 14 September 2025St. Truiden 0–3 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
  • 5 July 2025KVC Westerlo 1–3 St. TruidenFriendlies Clubs
  • 11 January 2025KVC Westerlo 1–2 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 26 October 2024St. Truiden 2–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: St. Truiden and KVC Westerlo

St. Truiden

GoalsAssists

  • S. Baždar50
  • I. Sebaoui43

KVC Westerlo

GoalsAssists

  • N. Bassette80
  • S. Saito51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

KVC Westerlo won 2–0 at St. Truiden. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Truiden at 44% and given a win for KVC Westerlo 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Norman Bassette 36' for KVC Westerlo, Cisse Sandra 46' for KVC Westerlo.

How the call on St. Truiden v KVC Westerlo has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is KVC Westerlo's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. St. Truiden win44%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. KVC Westerlo win30%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.