Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge Schweizer Cup prediction & result
Final score: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3-0 Étoile Carouge.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 26% draw, 14% Étoile Carouge — fair odds of 1.67, 3.85 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 21K. Martin
- 4D. Moussadek
- 5L. Hajrulahu
- 22T. Barbet
- 28I. Kaloga
- 8N. Lusuena
- 25J. Nkama
- 7T. Bouchlarhem
- 30R. Dantas Fernandes
- 10R. Freitas
- 11M. Sartoretti
- 1D. Da Silva
- 44H. Lukembila
- 2J. Carrasco
- 3B. Conus
- 19C. Sow
- 77V. Tritten
- 57N. Emeran
- 80J. A. Tur
- 20J. Dula
- 1M. Diallo
- 25V. Felder
- 32R. Kadima
- 22G. Zrankeon
- 99M. Tsoungui
- 26S. Bossiwa
- 6M. El Jaouhari
- 8Ricardo Alves
- 76Itaitinga
- 59O. Renovales
- 17O. Sene
- 23L. Huwiler
- 2D. Neves
- 4I. Strohbach
- 24M. Dubosson
- 21M. Holcbecher
- 88L. Essiena
- 77T. Escorza
- 7O. Correia
- 3F. Hoxha
Form going into Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Challenge League
- W3-0away to Rapperswil9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026
Étoile Carouge
Challenge League
- L0-2Yverdon Sport9 October 2026
- L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 31 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Étoile Carouge
- 1 September 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 10 April 2026Étoile Carouge 1–1 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 28 February 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–1 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 19 December 2025Étoile Carouge 1–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 30 August 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–0 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
The result against the call
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy beat Étoile Carouge 3–0. The model had made a win for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: R. Freitas 11' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, R. Dantas Fernandes 13' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, T. Bouchlarhem 34' for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
How the call on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Étoile Carouge has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 51% / 29% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 60% / 26% / 14%: the biggest move is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win60%▲ +9
- Draw26%▼ −3
- Étoile Carouge win14%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.