16 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Estudiantes La Plata vs Flamengo CONMEBOL Libertadores prediction & result

Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata
Referee: Juan Gabriel Benitez
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Estudiantes La Plata 0-0 Flamengo.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Estudiantes La Plata, 31% draw, 39% Flamengo — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the CONMEBOL Libertadores Semi-finals tie. Second leg: Flamengo v Estudiantes La Plata, 23 Oct →

Estudiantes La Plata went through on penalties, after 0–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Flamengo at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estudiantes La Plata3%Draw94%Flamengo3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alexis Castro
35'
Lucas Piovi
43'
63'
Lucas Paquetá
🔁Tiago Palaciosout: Joaquín Correa
68'
71'
Jorge Carrascal
🔁Joaquín Tobio Burgosout: Edwuin Cetre
74'
🔁Baltasar Gallego Rodriguezout: Miguel Monsalve
75'
80'
🔁Samuel Linoout: Gonzalo Plata
80'
🔁Bruno Henriqueout: Pedro
85'
🔁Lucas Paquetáout: Joaquín Freitas
86'
Guillermo Varela

Match stats — Estudiantes La Plata vs Flamengo

45%Possession55%
21Shots5
6On target0
6Corners4
1.13xG0.18

Goals against chances

Estudiantes La Plata0 from 1.13 xGless than the chances were worth
Flamengo0 from 0.18 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estudiantes La Plata 4-4-2
  • 16F. MusleraG
  • 40E. MancusoD
  • 4S. NúñezD
  • 26R. Funes MoriD
  • 13G. BenedettiD
  • 31B. GallegoM
  • 21Lucas Ezequiel PioviM
  • 22A. CastroM
  • 17J. BurgosM
  • 9G. CarrilloF
  • 10T. PalaciosF
Substitutes
  • 27L. AlarioF
  • 28B. AguirreF
  • 15S. ArzamendiaD
  • 18E. CetréF
  • 32J. CorreaF
  • 3Máximo DesábatoD
  • 19A. GaichF
  • 1F. IacovichG
  • 52B. KociubinskiM
Coach: Alexander Medina
Flamengo 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. RossiG
  • 22Emerson RoyalD
  • 3Léo OrtizD
  • 4Léo PereiraD
  • 26Alex SandroD
  • 5E. PulgarM
  • 8SaúlM
  • 15J. CarrascalM
  • 11Lucas PaquetáM
  • 16Samuel LinoM
  • 27Bruno HenriqueF
Substitutes
  • 61João Victor CunhaD
  • 7Luiz AraújoF
  • 42AndrewG
  • 44VitãoD
  • 2G. VarelaD
  • 14A. ValenciaF
  • 19G. PlataF
  • 77Johnny GóesD
  • 30J. FreitasF
Coach: Leonardo Jardim

Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs Flamengo

Estudiantes La Plata

CONMEBOL Libertadores

  • W1-0away to Corinthians17 September 2026
  • D1-1Corinthians10 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Universidad Catolica19 August 2026
  • D1-1Universidad Catolica12 August 2026

Flamengo

CONMEBOL Libertadores

  • D1-1Independiente del Valle18 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Independiente del Valle11 September 2026
  • W2-1Cruzeiro20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Cruzeiro13 August 2026

What these results say

  • Estudiantes La Plata went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Estudiantes La Plata scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Estudiantes La Plata had two goals or fewer.
  • Flamengo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Flamengo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Flamengo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Estudiantes La Plata623165+19
1Flamengo6510142+1216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs Flamengo

  • 21 May 2026Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 30 April 2026Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 26 September 2025Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
  • 19 September 2025Flamengo 2–1 Estudiantes La PlataCONMEBOL Libertadores

The full Estudiantes La Plata vs Flamengo record →

Leading scorers: Estudiantes La Plata and Flamengo

Estudiantes La Plata

GoalsAssists

  • G. Carrillo30
  • T. Palacios30

Flamengo

GoalsAssists

  • Bruno Henrique52
  • G. de Arrascaeta41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Estudiantes La Plata and Flamengo drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Flamengo at 39% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.13–0.18.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.